Yanzu dai Amurka na shirin yaki da Iraki. Menene hujjar irin wannan yakin? Lokaci-lokaci ana hasashen cewa ko ta yaya Iraqi na da alaka da harin 11 ga Satumba. Babban abin da ake zargin shi ne ganawar da ake zargin Mohammed Atta, shugaban masu fada a ji a ranar 11 ga Satumba, da wani jami'in diflomasiyyar Iraki da aka kora daga Jamhuriyar Czech saboda leken asiri. Ana nufin su biyu sun hadu a Prague a cikin 2001, 'gaskiya' ya tabbatar da ministan cikin gida na Czech Stanislav Gross a cikin Oktoba 2001. Lokacin da 'yan sandan Czech suka kammala binciken su a Dec. 2001, duk da haka, 'Jiri Kolar, shugaban 'yan sanda. ya ce babu wasu takardu da suka nuna cewa Atta ya ziyarci Prague a kowane lokaci a wannan shekara [2001], ko da yake ya ziyarci sau biyu a cikin 2000'. Wani mutum mai suna Mohammed Atta ya ziyarci Prague a shekara ta 2001, amma a cewar wata majiyar leken asirin kasar Czech, 'Ba shi da lambar katin shaida iri daya, akwai bambanci sosai a shekarun su, kasashensu ba su yi daidai ba. m ba komai. Wani ne.' (Daily Telegraph, 18 Dec. 2001, shafi na 10) Duk da wargajewar wannan tatsuniya, tana ci gaba da yaɗuwa kuma ana maimaita ta a matsayin gaskiya. Ƙarya mai amfani na iya rayuwa na dogon lokaci. Dangane da duk wata alaka tsakanin Bagadaza da al-Qaeda, wani tsohon jami'in CIA da ba a bayyana sunansa ba ya bayyana cewa, 'Gaskiyar magana ita ce Usama bin Laden ba ya son Saddam Hussein. Saddam mai kishin addini ne wanda ya kashe malaman addinin Musulunci fiye da yadda yake da Amurkawa. Ba su da kusan kome da kome sai ƙiyayya ga Amurka. Saddam shi ne babban dan ta'adda, kuma a gare shi 'yan ta'adda su ne madaidaicin sako-sako.' (Daily Telegraph, 20 Satumba 2001, shafi na 10)
Babu Hujja don Yaƙi - Makamai na Rusa Jama'a
Da farko dai, Washington ta saka Iraki cikin jerin kasashen da ke da alaka da al-Qaeda, amma a lokacin da gwamnatocin kasashen Turai suka dage cewa babu wata shaidar leken asiri da ta alakanta Bagadaza da kungiyar Osama bin Laden, sai Amurka ta sauya zani. Wani jami'in [British] ya ce "Yanzu an fi maida hankali kan shirin makamin na Iraki da kuma hadarin da Saddam zai iya aikawa da jami'ansa dauke da makamai masu guba." (Times, 16 ga Fabrairu. 2002, shafi na 19) Sabon rahoton CIA game da batun (Jan. 2002) ya ce, idan ba tare da 'shirin sa ido ba' 'ya fi wuya a tantance halin da ake ciki a halin yanzu' na nazarin halittu da Iraki. shirye-shiryen makamai masu guba. Babu bindigar shan taba, to. Tsohon jami'in binciken makamai na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya Scott Ritter ya rubuta cewa, "Idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin tsarin sa ido da UNSCOM [Masu binciken makamai na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya] suka sanya, wanda ya hada da tsauraran tsarin kula da shigo da kayayyaki, yana yiwuwa tun a shekarar 1997 don tantancewa. cewa, ta fuskar inganci, an kwance wa Iraki makamai. Iraki ba ta da wani adadi mai ma'ana na sinadarai ko kwayoyin halitta, idan tana da komai, kuma ko dai an kawar da hanyoyin masana'antu don samar da wadannan wakilai ko kuma ana sa ido sosai. Haka lamarin yake game da makaman nukiliya da makaman nukiliya na Iraki.' (Sakamakon Makamai A Yau, Yuni 2000) A cewar Ritter, wani tsohon sojan ruwa na Amurka, 'kera CW (maganin sinadarai) na buƙatar haɗa kayan aikin samarwa zuwa cikin haɗin gwiwa guda ɗaya, ƙirƙirar kayan aikin da dabarun leƙen asiri na United ɗin ke iya ganowa. Jihohi. CIA ta bayyana karara a lokuta da dama tun bayan kawo karshen binciken a watan Disamba 1998 cewa ba a gano irin wannan aiki ba.' Dangane da makaman halittu, 'Yan Iraki suna da isassun kayan aiki don gudanar da aikin samar da ma'aunin gwajin BW. Koyaya, ba tare da jiko na kuɗi da fasaha ba, faɗaɗa irin wannan ƙarfin cikin shirin makaman yaƙi abu ne mai yuwuwa. Sabanin sanannen imani, BW ba za a iya dafa shi kawai a cikin ginshiƙi ba; yana buƙatar manyan kayan aiki masu mahimmanci, musamman ma idan za a cika wakili a cikin bindigogi. Kamar yadda yake tare da CW, CIA ba ta gano wani irin wannan aiki ba game da BW tun lokacin da masu binciken UNSCOM suka bar Iraki.'
Amurka 'Ba Za Ta Dauki Ee Don Amsa'
Ba za a iya cimma matsaya game da shirye-shiryen makaman Iraki ba tare da sanya ido a cikin kasar ba, amma hanya mafi kyau don tabbatar da wannan sa ido ita ce matsawa zuwa wani shirin bincike na cin karo da juna, da nuna niyyar dagewa, ba kawai dakatarwa ba, takunkumi, a cewar Ritter. Manufofin Amurka suna tafiya ta wata hanyar. Watakila abin da zai iya haifar da sabon kamfen na sojan Amurka, shi ne bukatar masu binciken makamai na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya su koma Iraki, bukatar da aka shata domin nuna kin amincewa da Iraqi. 'Muhimman mutane a Fadar White House sun yi imanin cewa bukatar Saddam na sake shigar da masu binciken makamai na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya kamata a sanya su sosai ta yadda ba zai iya fuskantar su ba sai dai idan ya bai wa jami'ai 'yanci.' (Times, 16 ga Fabrairu, 2002, shafi na 19) Wani jami'in leken asirin Amurka ya ce Fadar White House 'ba za ta dauki ea don amsa ba'. (Mai gadi, 14 ga Fabrairu. 2002, shafi na 1)
lokaci
Ƙididdiga game da lokacin da Amurka ke niyyar ƙaddamar da yaƙi ya bambanta sosai. An ba da rahoton cewa sakataren tsaron Amurka Donald Rumsfeld ya ji tausayin yakin neman zaben da aka fara tun farkon wannan bazara. na Iraki, yayin da ake ganin a matsayin gaggawa, ba za a fara ba har zuwa karshen wannan shekara da farko.' (Sunday Telegraph, 3 Feb. 2002, shafi na 23) "Washington ta bayyana a shirye ta ke ta jira har sai bayan kwamitin tsaro na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya yi muhawara kan sabon tsarin takunkumi a watan Mayu, lokacin da za a kara bukatar masu binciken makamai na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya su sami damar shiga Iraki. ' 'Bayan kukan kerkeci da ƙarfi a wannan karon, da kyar [Mr Bush] zai iya komawa Capitol Hill shekara mai zuwa ba tare da wani abin nunawa ba.' (Mai zaman kansa a ranar Lahadi, 10 ga Fabrairu. 2002, shafi na 28) 'Shugaba Bush ya sha alwashin hambarar da Saddam Hussein a cikin shekara guda...in ji wata babbar majiyar diflomasiya.' (Daily Telegraph, 17 Feb. 2002, shafi na 23) 'Tsarin shirye-shiryen da ake buƙata don sojojin mamaye 16 ... na iya jinkirta mamayewa har zuwa kaka.' (Lokacin Lahadi, 2002 ga Fabrairu. 12, shafi na 200,000) Tsakanin Yuni da Nuwamba 17 ya zama kamar lokacin da ya fi dacewa don fara tashin hankali.
Gwajin 'Afganistan'
Matsala mai mahimmanci ita ce har yanzu masu shirin soja ba su fito da wani tsari mai gamsarwa ba: 'Ya zuwa yanzu, jami'ai ba su fito da wani shiri da ya dace da "gwajin Afganistan" ba: hari mai rahusa, mai saurin gaske wanda ke da babban yuwuwar. na hambarar da shugaba Saddam Hussein.' (FT, 1 ga Fabrairu. 2002, ƙarin shafi na III) Dole ne Washington ta yanke shawarar ko za ta gwada hanyar Afghanistan, ta dogara da dakarun 'yan adawa na cikin gida da ke samun tallafin jiragen sama na Amurka; ko kuma ya zaɓi 'kai wa Baghdad hari a kwatankwacinsa ta ƙungiyoyi uku da suka ƙunshi sojoji 50,000 waɗanda za a iya tura su cikin makonni'; ko kuma a yi amfani da 'tsarin mamayewa na dogon lokaci wanda ya bukaci a hada dakaru 200,000 na tsawon watanni uku.' (Sunday Times, 17 Feb. 2002, shafi na 28) Za a iya tara ƙananan sojojin a kan jiragen ruwan Amurka da kuma a Kuwait, ba tare da tilasta abokan da ba sa so a yankin su samar da sansani. Hakanan za'a iya gina shi cikin sauri, rage damar samun ci gaba ga 'yan adawa na duniya. 'Rundunar runduna uku ta Amurka - daya ta jirgin sama, injina daya da kuma ruwa daya - na iya kai hari cikin gaggawa a Bagadaza, mai yiwuwa ta haifar da juyin mulki nan take'. (Lokacin Lahadi, 17 ga Fabrairu. 2002, shafi na 28)
'Canjin Jagoranci' Ba 'Canjin Mulki'
Shugabannin Amurka, ciki har da sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Colin Powell, sun yi magana game da burinsu na ganin 'sauyin mulki' a Iraki. Duk da haka, tun daga 1991 gwamnatocin Amurka suka nisanta kansu daga haifar da sauyi na asali a Iraki, kuma sun nemi a maimakon 'yan mulkin sojan Iraki ba tare da Saddam Hussein ba', a cewar Thomas Friedman, wakilin diflomasiyya na New York Times, yana rubutu a ranar 7 ga Yuli. 1991: Takunkumin ya kasance a can don tada juyin mulki don haifar da 'mafi kyawun duk duniya', komawa zuwa zamanin da Saddam 'ƙarfe' ya rike Iraki tare, wanda ya gamsu da kawancen Amurka Turkiyya da Saudi Arabia. A cikin Maris 1991 Ahmed Chalabi (a yanzu shugaban ƙungiyar adawa ta Iraqi National Congress) ya bayyana wannan bege a matsayin 'mafi muni na duk duniya mai yuwuwa' ga mutanen Iraqi. (An nakalto a Noam Chomsky, Dokokin Duniya, Tsoho da Sabon, 1994, shafi na 9)
Yunkurin da Amurka ta yi na 'canjin shugabancin' maimakon 'canjin mulki' ya nuna a lokacin da Kurdawa da Shi'a suka tayar da gwamnati a cikin Maris 1991: Amurka ta ba da izinin Bagadaza don yin amfani da jirage masu saukar ungulu a kan 'yan tawaye, ta ki sakin jibgen makaman da aka kama ga dakarun 'yan tawaye. , kuma ya ki shiga tsakani don kare 'yan tawayen. Richard Haass, darekta mai kula da harkokin Gabas ta Tsakiya na Majalisar Tsaro ta Amurka, ya bayyana a cikin Maris 1991 cewa, 'Manufarmu ita ce mu kawar da Saddam, ba mulkinsa ba.' (Andrew da Patrick Cockburn, Out of the Ashes: The Resurrection of Saddam Hussein, HarperCollins 1999, shafi na 37) 'Lissafin Washington shi ne cewa wargajewar Iraki za ta canza ma'aunin iko a Gabas ta Tsakiya, musamman ma idan hakan ya faru. ya kai ga kafa Kurdistan mai cin gashin kansa. Turkiyya, abokiyar kawancen Amurka da ke da ’yan tsirarun Kurdawa, za ta tabarbare. Iran za ta iya yin amfani da gurbacewar yanayi.' (FT, 1 ga Fabrairu 2002, ƙarin shafi na III)
Tsayar da Guard Republican
Wani jami’in tsare-tsare na Amurka ya ce, ‘Tambayarmu ita ce, “Washegari fa?” Alal misali, kuna ɗaukar Guard Guard na Republican [sashin soja mafi aminci ga Saddam] ku kwance shi? Ko kuma ya fi dacewa a mayar da shi daga samun damar kare Saddam zuwa iya kare Iraki?' (New Yorker, 24 Dec. 2001, shafi na 63) Kare Iraki daga rarrabuwa, wato. A watan Faburairu na shekarar 1991, an yi damben boksin da ke kusa da birnin Basra, a kusa da birnin Basra, a lokacin da shugaba Bush Sr ya kira tsagaita bude wuta, da suka hada da Hammurabi Heavy Division. kiyaye wannan ginshiƙin tsakiya na tsarin mulki. Da alama a karkashin Shugaba Bush Jr. shirin soji ana gudanar da shi ne da irin wannan muradin na kiyaye tsarin mulkin soja a Iraki - Dakarun tsaron jam'iyyar Republican ba su gani ba daga shirye-shiryen da ake ta yadawa a kafafen yada labarai.
Rashin Halatta Yakin Amurka
'Amurka, har yau, ba ta da hurumin shiga tsakani na soja.' (Masanin tattalin arziki, 26 Jan. 2002, shafi na 59) Lord Healey, tsohon sakataren tsaro kuma jigo a jam'iyyar Labour, ya ce a lokacin Operation Desert Fox a watan Disamba 1998 babu 'kokwanto' cewa harin bam na Amurka haramun ne: 'Ba bisa ka'ida ba ne a kai hari da bama-bamai a wata kasa mai cin gashin kanta ba tare da izini kai tsaye daga kwamitin sulhu ba.' (Daily Telegraph, 21 Dec. 1998) Babu irin wannan izini da aka bayar, ko ake nema, don sabon yaƙin Amurka akan Iraqi.
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