ECO-APOCALYPSE YANZU
"Babu Yadda Duniya Ya Kamata Ta Yi Wannan Hadarin"
Ƙarƙashin ƙasa da kuma bayan kwararar abubuwan da ke faruwa a yanzu, gami da haɓakawa da danniya na Motsin Wall Street (OWS) da kuma ci gaba da barazanar koma bayan tattalin arziki biyu da rikicin Yuro ya haifar, babbar barazana ga kyakkyawar makomar ɗan adam ta zama abin kyawawa. ya fi tsanani. Ta kowace hanya mai ma'ana, haɗarin shine rugujewar muhalli ta fuskoki da dama[1] da kuma musamman bala'in sauyin yanayi da ya samo asali daga 'yan kaɗan masu arziki tsarin ribar man fetur. Wani bincike da masana kimiyyar Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suka fitar a cikin bazarar shekara ta 2009 ya ci gaba da yin ƙira mafi inganci da aka taɓa ginawa kan sauyin yanayi a duniya. Rahoton ya nuna cewa "ba tare da daukar mataki cikin gaggawa ba, matsalar za ta kasance da ninki sau biyu kamar yadda aka kiyasta a baya shekaru shida da suka wuce." Wani fitaccen masanin kimiyyar duniya da ke jagorantar rahoton MIT ya ce "babu yadda duniya za ta iya ko kuma ta dauki wadannan kasada" na ci gaba da tura ambulan karfin sararin samaniya don shawo kan iskar gas cikin aminci kuma ya bayar da hujjar cewa "zaɓin mafi ƙarancin farashi don rage farashin. Haɗarin shine farawa yanzu kuma a hankali canza tsarin makamashi na duniya a cikin shekaru masu zuwa zuwa ƙarancin fasaha mai fitar da iskar gas."[2] A halin yanzu a Durban, Afirka ta Kudu, kamar yadda aka yi a Copenhagen, Denmark shekaru biyu da suka gabata (duba sashin wannan makala mai taken “CIN AMANA’ OBAMA” da ke ƙasa), gwamnatin Barack Obama mai ra'ayin mazan jiya, mai son Wall Street.[3] yana aiki a bayan fage don tabbatar da cewa bil'adama ya ci gaba a kan turbar da aka yi gargadi da manyan masana kimiyyar duniya a babbar jami'ar kimiyyar daular.[4]
"Babu Barazana Nan gaba"
Hatta da yawa daga cikin ƙwararrun masana kimiyyar yanayi sun sami kuskure lokacin da suka fara ƙararrawa game da dumamar yanayi (wanda ɗan adam ya haifar) a ƙarshen 1980s da farkon 1990s. Masanan sun yi kama da cewa "matsakaicin matakin" wanda ya wuce abin da aka yi wa rayuwar ɗan adam barazana shine sassa 550 na carbon dioxide a kowace miliyan na yanayi (biyu na tarihin tarihi na sassa 275 a kowace miliyan.) Ingantacciyar ma'aunin tipping, wanda aka gano kwanan nan, yana kusa da 350, ma'auni a zahiri da muka wuce. A halin yanzu muna kan sassa 390 a kowace miliyan kuma ana hasashen za mu buga 650 kafin rugujewar ƙarshe ba tare da canji na asali ba a tsarin amfani da makamashinmu. Tuni, a 390 mun haifar da wasu abubuwa masu banƙyama da ɗumamar da'irar da aka haifar da "sakamakon amsawa" wanda ke tsananta matsalar dumama. Kamar yadda babban marubucin muhalli kuma mai fafutuka Bill McKibben ya rubuta a cikin littafinsa mai sanyi da mahimmanci na 2010 Duniya: Yin Rayuwa akan Sabuwar Duniya mai Tauri, narkewar ƙanƙarar Arctic ta “maye gurbin [s] farin madubi mai sheki” da ke nuna hasken rana zuwa sararin samaniya “tare da tekun shuɗi mai shuɗi wanda ke ɗaukar mafi yawan hasken.” Gilashin kankara na cikin gida da fakitin dusar ƙanƙara a cikin Himalayas, Andes, Sierras, da Rockies suna ja da baya, suna barazana ga ruwa da abinci na gida da na duniya. Suna "narke da sauri sosai, kuma a cikin shekarun da suka gabata samar da ruwa ga biliyoyin mutanen da ke zaune a cikin ruwa na iya raguwa"[5]
Narkewar daga cikin tundra na arttic da ƙanƙara clathrates na fitar da methane mai ɗimbin yawa, babban tarko mai zafi da faɗakarwar yanayi. Narkewar gansakuka na arewa yana fitar da iskar carbon mai yawa. Masana kimiyya sun ba da rahoton cewa kwararo da tafkuna na arewa ba su daskarewa a lokacin hunturu saboda methane yana kwararowa daga ƙasa. Bayan yawan adadin carbon da muka ciro daga tsohuwar ƙasa kuma muka jefa cikin sabuwar (abin da McKibben ya kira "Duniya") ta hanyar bututun wutsiya da bututun hayaƙi, yanzu muna saita "bama-bamai na cikin duniyar." Mun haifar da shi amma "ba za mu sake sakin methane kai tsaye ba" da "ba za mu iya rufe shi ba." Abin da ya fi muni shi ne, yadda zafi ya haifar da laushin permafrost da bushewar gansakuka na buɗe sabbin ƙasashen arewa zuwa haƙar mai. Kuma yayin da tafkunan man fetur na ƙarshe da ake samun sauƙin isarsu ke bushewa a cikin sabon zamanin “man fetur kololuwa,” in ji McKibben, za mu ƙara dogaro da “mafi yawan amfani da mafi yawan man fetur ɗinmu, tsohuwar kwal mai kyau. Kuma takamaiman sakamakon amfani da gawayi zai kasance… ƙarin dumamar yanayi, tunda ita ce mafi ƙazanta daga duk wani abu mai daɗaɗɗa, wanda ke samar da carbon dioxide sau biyu na mai.”[6]
A halin yanzu, kasuwa mai haɓaka don samar da mai mai ƙarancin kuzari yana haɗuwa tare da ɗumamar yanayi don haifar da saran gandun daji a duniya, wanda ke ƙara ɗumamar yanayi da haifar da zaizayar ƙasa, zabtarewar laka, da ambaliyar ruwa. Dumamar yanayi yana ba da damar wasu ƙwaro da aka sani don lalata wasu bishiyoyi don "sauka" kuma su bunƙasa, don cutar da gandun daji, wanda ya zama mafi haɗari ga gobara, wanda da kansu suka watsar da carbon a cikin iska. Komawar dajin Amazonian - mai girma "Huhun Duniya" (a halin yanzu "yana bushewa a gefenta kuma ana barazanarsa a cikinsa") yana hana Latin Amurka da bel na masarar Amurka na ruwan sama na yau da kullum da ake bukata kuma yana kawar da daya daga cikin manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da iskar oxygen a duniya (dazuzzuka suna tsotsa a cikin carbon da kuma iska). iskar oxygen). "Babban Boreal Arewacin Amurka yana mutuwa cikin al'amuran shekaru." [7] Rushewar gandun daji shi kansa babban tushen sakin carbon.
Daga Periphery zuwa Core
Jeri da ma'amala na mugunyar "hanyoyi mara kyau" suna ci gaba da ci gaba. Kuma yana ci gaba a yanzu: “ɗumamar yanayi,” in ji McKibbben, “ba barazanar falsafa ba ce, ba barazana ce ta gaba ba, kuma ba barazana ba ce. Gaskiyar mu ce ta hanyoyin da “sun riga sun lalata dubban rayuka kullum”[8] a yankunan da suka fi fama da talauci a duniya inda matsalolin abinci da suka shafi yanayi da rugujewar muhalli suka fi fuskantar kalubale kuma mutane suna da karancin kariya. Babban masanin kimiya na Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka yana aiwatar da bala'in yunwar da ke da alaka da sauyin yanayi mai tsanani wanda zai iya shafar mutane biliyan guda nan da shekaru masu zuwa. Dumamar yanayi ta haifar da sake bullowar cutar zazzabin dengue mai saurin kisa a kudu maso yammacin Asiya a yankin Latin Amurka - sakamakon yadda sauro mai dauke da kwayar cutar dengue ke ciyar da shi sosai kuma yana kyankyashe kwayar cutar cikin sauri a yanayin zafi. Ana jin mummunan sakamako tare da ciwo na musamman a cikin "duniya mai tasowa", inda yawancin mutane suka fi dacewa da cututtuka masu tasowa, karancin abinci, ambaliya, matsanancin yanayi, da sauran bala'o'in muhalli. Tashin hankali na abinci ya barke a cikin kasashe talatin da bakwai masu fama da talauci a shekarar 2008 don mayar da martani ga tashin farashin kayan abinci da ya biyo bayan fashewar kasuwan man fetur (wanda tashin farashin mai ya haifar) a waccan shekarar.[9]
Har yanzu, sauyin yanayi da gajiyawar albarkatun mai a duniya an riga an ji daɗi sosai a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki. Sun ba da gudummawa ga Hurricane Katrina (2005) da 2003 zafi zafi wanda ya kashe daruruwan a Turai da kuma tilasta vastst tsada kayayyakin more rayuwa zuba jari (misali giant dike inganta da sauran haɓakawa a cikin Netherlands da Venice) da sauran halin kaka a cikin kasashe masu arziki. Gobarar dajin da ke da nasaba da yanayi da gobarar daji ta raba dubban masu gidaje da mazauna gida tare da kashe ɗaruruwa a faɗin duniya masu arziki. Birnin New York yana kashe miliyoyi don sa ran hauhawar matakan teku. A cewar wani binciken da aka ba da izini daga Cibiyar Kiwon Lafiya da Muhalli ta Harvard ta Swiss Re (kamfanin inshora mafi girma a duniya) shekaru bakwai da suka gabata, canjin yanayi na kusa zai haifar da karuwar yawan guguwa da sauran rikice-rikicen da za su " mamaye masu daidaitawa. damar har ma da kasashen da suka ci gaba; manyan yankuna da sassan [za su] zama marasa tsaro; manyan zuba jari [zai] fadi; kuma kasuwanni [zasu] fashe…. sassan duniya da suka ci gaba [zasu] fuskanci yanayin ci gaban al'umma na tsawan lokaci sakamakon bala'o'in yanayi da kuma rashin lahani saboda raguwar lokutan dawowar matsananciyar al'amura." The Yin amfani da albarkatun mai fiye da kima ya taimaka wajen durkusar da tattalin arzikin shekarar 2008 ta hanyar haɓaka farashin iskar gas zuwa wani mataki wanda ya taimaka wajen lalata ƙimar gida na kewayen birni ta hanyar haɓaka tsadar rayuwa a irin waɗannan gidaje.[10]
Mahaukacin Yanayi, Rikodin Narkewa da Fitarwa
Tun lokacin da littafin McKibben ya fito a cikin bazara na 2010, alamun bayyanar bala'in yanayi sun ƙara tsananta. Masifu na yanayi da ba a saba gani ba sun yaɗu a duniya, daga bala'in ambaliya a Asiya , Ostiraliya , da kuma Afirka zuwa yanayin guguwa mai tsanani a cikin Pacific da jerin ban mamaki na blizzards, ambaliya, raƙuman zafi, fari, gobarar daji, guguwa mai karfi da sauran guguwa (ciki har da mahaukaciyar guguwa mai karfi a yammacin Amurka - lamarin da ya sa masu hawan igiyar ruwa a tafkin Taho a makon da ya gabata) a Amurka wanda ya kashe mutane da dama tare da asarar biliyoyin daloli. Makonni biyu da suka gabata, kwamitin kula da sauyin yanayi (IPCC) na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya da ya lashe kyautar Nobel ya fitar da wani rahoto da ke alakanta dumamar yanayi da yanayin yanayi. abubuwan da suka faru kamar fari, ambaliyar ruwa, guguwa, da raƙuman zafi da kuma hauhawar matakan teku masu haɗari. Bisa lafazin Michael Oppenheimer, masanin kimiyyar yanayi na Jami'ar Princeton kuma babban marubucin sabon rahoton, "Yanayi mai zafi, mai dausayi yanayi ne da aka fara haifar da bala'i. Yayin da duniya ke kara zafi, hadarin yana karuwa." The Hukumar Kula da Yanayi ta Duniya a wannan makon ta fitar da wani rahoto da ke nuna cewa shekarar 2011 ta kasance shekara ta goma mafi zafi a tarihi, cewa dusar kankarar tekun Arctic ba ta da karfin girma a bana, kuma shekaru 13 daga cikin mafi zafi a tarihi sun faru a shekaru 15 da suka gabata. Wani bincike da aka buga kwana guda kafin Thanksgiving ya ba da rahoton cewa a halin yanzu asarar kankarar teku da ba a taɓa gani ba a cikin Arctic alama ce ta canjin yanayi da ɗan adam ke shafar. Abubuwan da suka faru daga shekaru 30 da suka gabata sun nuna cewa ba da daɗewa ba za a iya samun "Arctic maras kankara" a lokacin rani, in ji rahoton binciken.[11]
Narke mafi girma na Artic kankara ya faru a wannan shekara, wanda ya haifar da asarar murabba'in mil 1.67 na murfin kankara. Bloomberg/Makon Kasuwanci, mallakar kashi ɗaya bisa ɗari kuma yana ɗauke da sunan .001 bisa dari mega biliyan da Wall Street titan Michael Bloomberg - 12th Ba'amurke mafi arziki wanda ya ba da umarnin korar manyan jami'an 'yan sanda-jihar OWS a matsayinsa na magajin garin New York - cikin nutsuwa ya ba da rahoton labarai daga mujallar kimiyya. Nature:
“Kanƙarar tekun Arctic tana shafar yanayin duniya, tunda kashi 80 na hasken rana da ke faɗowa ana nuna shi a sararin samaniya. Lokacin da kankara ya narke a lokacin rani, yakan fallasa saman tekun, wanda ke daukar kusan kashi 90 na haske, yana dumama ruwan, a cewar cibiyar bayanai kan dusar kankara da kankara ta kasa. Wannan yana rinjayar yanayin yanayi….'Kana ƙara radiation da tekuna ke mamayewa, wannan shine ɗayan mafi kyawun hanyoyin amsa sauyin yanayi,' in ji Kinnard. 'Yawancin kankara ku rasa, yawan kuzarin da kuke samu a cikin teku, wanda ke dumama yanayi'.[12]
Wani bincike da aka buga a cikin watan Disamba na 2011 na mujallar da aka sake dubawa Yanayin Canjin yanayi ya gano cewa hayakin carbon dioxide da ake fitarwa a duniya daga kona man fetur ya karu da rabi a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata. A bara, hayakin mai ya karu da kashi 5.9 cikin 1990, wanda ya kawo jimillar hauhawar tun a shekarar XNUMX (tushen kididdigar hayakin da zai kare nan ba da jimawa ba. Kyoto yarjejeniya) zuwa kashi 49. Dokta Corrine Le Quéré, darektan Cibiyar Nazarin Canjin Yanayi ta Tyndall a Jami'ar Gabashin Anglia, kuma marubucin binciken, ya gaya wa Guardian cewa shekaru ashirin da suka gabata an samu ci gaba kadan ne kawai a kokarin da ake na yankewa Hadarin da ke tattare da sauyin yanayi: "Akwai kokarin yin amfani da karin makamashi mai sabuntawa da inganta ingantaccen makamashi amma abin da wannan ya nuna shi ne cewa ya zuwa yanzu, tasirin ya kasance kadan." [13]
"Marginal" yana da kyau da yawa. Kamar yadda marubucin muhalli Mark Lynas ya lura shekaru huɗu da suka gabata: “Duk ƙoƙarinmu - na cinikin carbon, kashe fitilu, yarjejeniya ta Kyoto, da sauransu - sun yi tasiri sosai ya zuwa yanzu: kasa da sifili. "[14]
Physics da Chemistry Ba Su Rarraba: Gudun Farawa Baya
Barka da zuwa muguwar da'irar carbon wanda zai iya zama mutuwar jinsunan ɗan adam. Ya riga ya shafe fiye da wasu yayin da muke "gudanar da Farawa baya, rage ƙirƙira."[15] Kashi uku cikin huɗu na manyan yankunan penguin a cikin Antarctic na iya ɓacewa nan ba da jimawa ba saboda tabarbarewar rayuwar ruwa da ke haifar da mummunan tasirin Arctic na narkewa akan phytoplankton- zuciyar sarkar abinci na yankin. Kamar yadda McKibven yayi jayayya a ciki Duniya, wanda aka rubuta a cikin 2009 kuma aka sake shi a cikin bazara na 2010, duk wannan yana faruwa a halin yanzu - ba a cikin wani nisa mai nisa nan gaba wanda "jikokinmu za su zauna." Duniyar da ta gabata ta riga ta mutu, ta ba da hanya ga gurɓatacciyar ƙasa (“Duniya”) wanda zamani na Yamma ya ƙirƙira ta wuce gona da iri na amfani da albarkatun ƙasa na duniya. Sai da kasashe masu arziki suka ɗauki ƙarni biyu kawai don musanya duniyar da ke tattare da haɗari wanda ya ba mu kyakkyawan yanayin yanayi "mafi kyau" (tare da matsakaicin yanayin yanayin duniya tsakanin 58 zuwa 60 digiri Fahrenheit da carbon dioxide a sassa 275 a kowace miliyan) ga yawancin 10,000 shekarun da suka zama sanannun wayewar ɗan adam. Sakamakon sun riga sun zuba mana ido. "wannan," McKibben yayi murmushi, “shine abu mafi girma da ya taba faruwa. " [16]
Akwai ƙarancin wuri tare da kowace ranar wucewa don jinkirta aiki don rage yawan hayaƙin carbon. Batun yanayi da matsalar muhalli sun bambanta da sauran fannonin siyasa idan ya zo ga buƙatar aiwatar da kiran da Dr. Martin Luther King Jr ya yi na Amurkawa su gane "gaggawar gaggawa na yanzu." Muna kallon Eco. - Apocalypse Yanzu. Martanin da muka yi game da wannan kallon ya koma yankin da ba a iya wucewa ba, ya wuce maki haruffa. Ba za mu iya auna inganta manufofin muhalli kamar muna ci gaba a kan buɗaɗɗen fili, muna ci gaba da ƴan yadi a lokaci guda. Mun kai ga wani yanayi na al'ada: ko dai mu yi tsalle ko gina gada zuwa makoma mai dorewa ko kuma gabaɗayan wasan ya ƙare. Tare da batutuwa kamar kiwon lafiya, kuɗin yakin neman zabe, haƙƙin ma'aikata da sauransu, masu ci gaba a wasu lokuta za su iya zaɓar su lashe abin da za su iya, raba bambanci sannan kuma tattara albarkatu don samun riba a nan gaba a kan hanyar zuwa cikakken gyara, sanin cewa gazawar samun nasara. hakika babban nasara mai ban tsoro a halin yanzu ba ya samun ci gaba da ba za a iya samu ba a nan gaba. Abubuwa sun sha bamban da yanayi da yanayi tun, kamar yadda McKibben ya lura, “dumamar yanayi…tambaya ce tsakanin mutane a daya bangaren da kimiyyar lissafi da kuma ilmin sinadarai a daya bangaren. Wanda tattaunawa ce mai tsauri, domin physics da chemistry ba sa yin sulhu."[17]
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Bada Tallafi