Last month, the National Nuclear Security Administration (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission) announced that the first of a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons had birgima Layin taron a tashar makaman nukiliya ta Pantex a cikin panhandle na Texas. Wancan kanun, W76-2, an ƙera shi ne don haɗa shi da wani makami mai linzami na Trident da aka harba a cikin ruwa, makami mai tsawon sama da mil 7,500. Zuwa watan Satumba, adadin da ba a bayyana adadin shugabannin yakin ba zai kasance Tsĩrar zuwa Sojojin ruwa don turawa.
Abin da ya sa wannan musamman sabon makamin nukiliya shi ne gaskiyar cewa tana ɗauke da a mafi karami kaya mai lalacewa fiye da dodanni na thermonuclear Trident ya kwashe shekaru da yawa yana karbar bakuncin - ba daidai da kusan kiloton 100 na TNT ba kamar a baya, amma na kilotons biyar. Bisa lafazin Stephen Young na ƙungiyar masana kimiyyar da suka damu, W76-2 zai ba da "kawai" kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na mummunan ikon makaman da Enola Gay, an American B-29 bomber, dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Yet that very shrinkage of the power to devastate is precisely what makes this nuclear weapon potentially the most dangerous ever manufactured. Fulfilling the Trump administration’s quest for nuclear-war-fighting “flexibility,” it isn’t designed as a deterrent against another country launching its nukes; it’s designed to be used. This is the weapon that could make the previously “wanda ba a iya tsammani ba" mai tunani.
There have long been “low-yield” nuclear weapons in the arsenals of the nuclear powers, including ones on cruise missiles, “air-drop bombs” (carried by planes), and even nuclear artillery shells — weapons designated as “tactical” and intended to be used in the confines of a specific battlefield or in a regional theater of war. The vast majority of them were, however, eliminated in the nuclear arms reductions that followed the end of the Cold War, a scaling-down by both the United States and Russia that would be quietly greeted with relief by battlefield commanders, those actually responsible for the potential use of such ordnance who understood its self-destructive absurdity.
Matsayin wasu makamai a matsayin "ƙananan amfanin gona" bisa la'akari da makamashinsu mai lalacewa ko da yaushe ya dogara ne akan wani bambance-bambancen da gaskiyar ta haifar da rashin ma'ana (da zarar an yi la'akari da lalacewa daga rediyoaktif da faɗuwar yanayi tare da rashin yiwuwar cewa za a yi amfani da irin wannan makami ɗaya kawai). A gaskiya ma, kawar da makaman nukiliyar dabarar yana wakiltar adawa mai wuyar gaske tare da dokar ƙarfe na haɓakawa, fahimtar wani kwamandan - cewa duk wani amfani da irin wannan makami a kan abokin gaba mai makami zai iya haifar da wani makawa na sarkar makaman nukiliya wanda ƙarshensa ya kasance. da kyar ake iya tunanin. Bangare ɗaya ba zai taɓa yin nasara ba tare da ba da amsa iri ɗaya ba, yana ƙaddamar da tsari wanda zai iya jujjuya cikin hanzari zuwa ga musayar apocalyptic. “Yakin nukiliya mai iyaka,” a wasu kalmomi, tunanin wawa ne kuma sannu a hankali ya zama sananne a duk faɗin duniya. Babu kuma, abin takaici.
Ba kamar makamai na dabara ba, an ƙirƙira dabarun nuklea don kai hari kai tsaye ga mahaifar maƙiyi mai nisa. Har ya zuwa yanzu, matsanancin ikonsu na lalata (sau da yawa ya fi wanda aka yi wa Hiroshima) ya sa ba zai yiwu a yi tunanin ainihin al'amuran da za su yi amfani da su ba a zahiri, ba tare da ambaton ɗabi'a ba, karɓuwa. Daidai ne don cire wannan hani mai amfani - dabi'ar dabi'a da alama ba zata lissafta ba - cewa gwamnatin Trump kwanan nan ya fara aikin na janyewa daga Yarjejeniyar Sojan Nukiliya Tsakanin Tsakanin Tsakanin Tsakanin Yakin Cold War, yayin da ake mirgina sabon makami "iyakance" daga layin taro kuma don haka canza tsarin Trident. Tare da waɗannan ayyukan, ba za a iya zama ɗan tambaya cewa ɗan adam yana shiga cikin haɗari ba zamanin nukiliya na biyu.
That peril lies in the way a 70-year-old inhibition that undoubtedly saved the planet is potentially being shelved in a new world of supposedly “amfani” nukes. Of course, a weapon with one-third the destructive power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, where as many as 150,000 died, might kill 50,000 people in a similar attack before escalation even began. Of such nukes, former Secretary of State George Shultz, who was at President Ronald Reagan’s elbow when Cold War-ending arms control negotiations climaxed, ya ce, “A nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon. You use a small one, then you go to a bigger one. I think nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons and we need to draw the line there.”
Yaya Kusa da Tsakar dare?
Har ya zuwa yanzu, ya kasance wani al'amari na zamanin nukiliya cewa wasu daga cikin masu sukar irin wannan makamin an zabo su daga cikin mutanen da suka kirkiro shi. Alamar hakan ita ce Bulletin of Atomic Masana kimiyya, a bimonthly journal founded after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by veteran scientists from the Manhattan Project, which created the first nuclear weapons. (Today, that magazine’s sponsors include 14 Masu Kyautar Nobel.) Daga 1947, da BulletinRufin yana aiki kowace shekara a matsayin nau'in ƙararrawa na nukiliya, wanda ke nuna abin da ake kira Doomsday Clock, hannun mintinansa koyaushe yana gabatowa "tsakar dare" (wanda aka bayyana a matsayin lokacin bala'in nukiliya).
A cikin wannan shekarar ta farko, an sanya hannun a minti bakwai zuwa tsakar dare. A shekara ta 1949, bayan da Tarayyar Soviet ta samu bam din nukiliya ta farko, ta taka har zuwa mintuna uku kafin tsakar dare. A cikin shekaru da yawa, an sake saita shi a kowane watan Janairu don yin rijistar haɓaka da raguwar matakan haɗarin nukiliya. A shekara ta 1991, bayan kawo karshen yakin cacar baka, an mayar da shi zuwa mintuna 17, sa'an nan, na wasu shekaru masu cike da bege, agogon ya bace gaba daya.
It came back in 2005 at seven minutes to midnight. In 2007, the scientists began factoring climate degradation into the assessment and the hands moved inexorably forward. By 2018, after a year of Donald Trump, it clocked in at two minutes to midnight, a shrill alarm meant to signal a return to the greatest peril ever: the two-minute level reached only once before, Shekaru 65 da suka gabata. Last month, within days of the announced manufacture of the first W76-2, the Bulletin's murfin don 2019 ya kasance bayyana, still at that desperate two-minute mark, aka the edge of doom.
To fully appreciate how precarious our situation is today, the Bulletin of Atomic Masana kimiyya a fakaice ya gayyace mu da mu koma wancan lokacin na mintuna biyu kafin tsakar dare. Idan kera sabon makamin nukiliya mai ƙarancin amfanin ƙasa ya nuna wani yunƙuri na komawa ga haɗari, la'akari da shi a matsayin abin ban mamaki cewa irin wannan lokacin na ƙarshe ya haɗa da kera nau'in nau'in nau'in makaman nukiliya mai matsananciyar kishiyar: makami "super", kamar yadda ake kiransa a lokacin. , ko bam din hydrogen. Hakan ya kasance a cikin 1953 kuma abin da wataƙila ya kasance mafi muni a cikin labarin nukiliya har zuwa yanzu ya faru.
Bayan da Soviets suka tayar da bam din nukiliyarsu na farko a shekara ta 1949, Amurka ta fara wani shiri na hada karfi da karfe don kera makamin nukiliya mafi karfi. Bayan da aka dakatar da shi bayan yakin duniya na biyu, an sake kunna shukar Pantex kuma ita ce babbar tushen nukiliyar Amurka tun daga lokacin.
Bam din atomic makamin fission ne, ma'ana tsakiyan kwayoyin halitta sun kasu kashi-kashi wadanda jimlar jimlarsu tayi kasa da na asali, bambancin da aka canza zuwa makamashi. Bam ɗin hydrogen yana amfani da zafin zafin da wannan “fission” ya haifar (saboda haka thermomakaman nukiliya) a matsayin abin da ke haifar da “haɗin kai,” ko haɗawa da abubuwa masu ƙarfi, wanda ke haifar da hasarar da ta fi girma ta rikidewa zuwa fashewar makamashin wani nau'in da ba a taɓa tunanin a baya ba. Ɗayan H-bam yana haifar da ƙarfin fashewa sau 100 zuwa 1,000 na lalata bam na Hiroshima.
Idan aka ba da irin ƙarfin da ɗan adam kawai ke tsammani a hannun alloli, manyan tsoffin masana kimiyya na Manhattan Project, ciki har da Enrico Fermi, James Conant, da J. Robert Oppenheimer, da ƙarfi adawa samar da irin wannan sabon makami a matsayin barazana ga jinsin dan adam. Babban Bomb zai zama, a cikin kalmar Conant, "kisan kiyashi." Bayan ja-gorancin wadancan masana kimiyya, mambobin Hukumar Makamashin Atomic sun ba da shawarar - ta hanyar jefa kuri'a na uku zuwa biyu - a kan samar da irin wannan makamin hade, amma Shugaba Truman ya ba da umarnin a yi hakan.
A cikin 1952, yayin da gwajin H-bam na farko ya gabato, masana kimiyyar atom ɗin da har yanzu suna damun su sun ba da shawarar cewa a dage gwajin har abada don a kawar da babbar gasa ta “super” da Soviets. Sun ba da shawarar cewa a yi wata hanya zuwa Moscow don iyakance ci gaban makamashin nukiliya kawai don yin bincike kan, ba ainihin gwajin irin wannan makamin ba, musamman tunda babu wani abu da za a iya yi a asirce. Za a iya gano fashewar fashewar bam ɗin da ke daɗaɗɗen gwajin ta ɗayan ɓangaren, wanda zai iya ci gaba da shirin gwajin nasa. Masanan kimiyyar sun bukaci Moscow da Washington da su zana layin sarrafa makaman da kasashen biyu za su amince da shi bayan shekaru masu yawa.
At the time, the United States had the initiative. An out-of-control arms race with the potential accumulation of thousands of such weapons on both sides had not yet really begun. In 1952, the United States numbered its atomic arsenal in the low hundreds; the Soviet Union in the dozens. (Even those numbers, of course, already offered a vision of an Armageddon-like global war.) President Truman considered the proposal to indefinitely postpone the test. It was then backed by figures like Vannevar Bush, who headed the Office of Scientific Research and Development, which had overseen the wartime Manhattan Protect. Scientists like him already grasped the lesson that would only slowly dawn on policymakers — that every advance in the atomic capability of one of the superpowers would inexorably lead the other to match it, ad infinitum The title of the bestselling James Jones novel of that moment caught the feeling perfectly: From Here to Eternity.
A cikin kwanaki na ƙarshe na shugabancinsa, duk da haka, Truman ya yanke shawara a kan irin wannan jinkirin gwajin ba da daɗewa ba - a kan, wato, hutu a cikin ci gaban tarin nukiliya wanda zai iya canza tarihi. Ranar 1 ga Nuwamba, 1952, H-bam na farko - "Mike" - ya kasance fashewa a wani tsibiri a cikin Pacific. Tana da ƙarfi sau 500 fiye da bom ɗin da ya shafe Hiroshima. Da kwallon wuta mai nisa fiye da mil uku, ba wai kawai ta lalata ginin bene mai hawa uku da aka gina don gina ta ba har ma da tsibirin Elugelab baki daya, da kuma wasu sassan tsibiran da ke kusa.
Ta wannan hanyar, zamanin thermonuclear ya fara kuma layin taro a waccan shukar Pantex da gaske ya fara ɓata. Kasa da shekaru 10 bayan haka, Amurka tana da makaman nukiliya 20,000, galibi H-bam; Moscow, kasa da 2,000. Kuma bayan wata uku da gwajin farko, da Bulletin na Atomic Scientists ya matsar da wannan hannun akan sabon agogonsa zuwa mintuna biyu kafin tsakar dare.
Shafin Mahaukaci-Ka'idar Duniya
Yana iya zama kamar rashin fahimta don kwatanta kera abin da ake kira "mini-nuke" zuwa ƙirƙirar "super" kusan shekaru sittin da suka wuce, amma a gaskiya, menene ma'anar "mini" zai iya samun gaske lokacin da muke magana game da yakin nukiliya? Ma'anar ita ce, kamar yadda yake a cikin 1952, don haka a cikin 2019 ana ketare wani ƙofa mai ƙirar zamani a masana'antar makaman guda ɗaya a cikin tudu na ƙasar Texas Panhandle, inda aka ƙirƙiri kayan aikin tashin hankali da yawa. Abin ban mamaki, domin a ƙarshe an fahimci H-bomb a matsayin ainihin abin da masana kimiyyar da ba su yarda ba suka yi iƙirarin cewa shi ne - makamin kisan kiyashi - matsin lamba kan amfani da shi ya kasance mai yuwuwa a cikin kusan shekaru arba'in na mummunan gaba na gabas da yamma. A yau, W76-2 da aka ɗora a kan Trident na iya samun tasiri daban-daban - aikinsa na farko na halaka mai yuwuwa shine kawar da dogon tsaye, bayan Hiroshima da Nagasaki haramcin amfani da makaman nukiliya. A wasu kalmomi, shekaru da yawa bayan da aka shafe tsibirin Elugelab daga doron duniya, "makamin cikakke" ya zama daidai.
With President Trump faduwa ka'idar ta Richard Nixon ta "ka'idar mahaukaci" - cewa hukuncin tsohon shugaban kasa cewa abokin hamayya ya kamata ya ji tsoron shugaban Amurka ya kasance mai rashin kwanciyar hankali zai iya tura maɓallin nukiliya - menene za a yi? Har yanzu, masana kimiyya masu shakkar nukiliya, waɗanda suka fahimci mahimman matsalolin da ke tattare da makaman nukiliya tare da bayyananniyar haske na kashi uku cikin huɗu na ƙarni, suna nuna hanya. A cikin 2017, Ƙungiyar Ƙwararrun Masana Kimiyya, tare da Likitoci don Alhakin Jama'a, kaddamar Komawa daga Brink: Kira don Hana Yakin Nukiliya, "wani shiri ne na ƙasa wanda ke neman canza ainihin manufofin makaman nukiliya na Amurka da kuma jagorantar mu daga hanya mai haɗari da muke kan."
Engaging a broad coalition of civic organizations, municipalities, religious groups, educators, and scientists, it aims to lobby government bodies at every level, to raise the nuclear issue in every forum, and to engage an ever-wider group of citizens in pressing for change in American nuclear policy. Back From the Brink makes bukatu biyar, much needed in a world in which the U.S. and Russia are withdrawing from a key Cold-War-era nuclear treaty with more potentially to come, including the New START pact that ya ƙare shekaru biyu kenan. Bukatu guda biyar sune:
- No to first use of nukes. (Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Adam Smith only recently gabatarwa Babu Dokar Amfani da Farko a cikin majalisun biyu don hana Trump da shugabannin gaba daga kaddamar da yakin nukiliya.)
- End the unchecked launch-authority of the president. (Last month, Senator Edward Markey and Representative Ted Lieu sake bugawa lissafin da zai yi haka.)
- A'a ga makaman nukiliya masu haifar da gashi.
- A'a don sabuntawa da maye gurbin arsenal mara iyaka (kamar yadda Amurka ke yi a yanzu zuwa yanayin ƙila. $ 1.6 tiriliyan sama da shekaru talatin).
- Na'am ga yarjejeniyar kawar da makaman nukiliya tsakanin kasashe masu makaman nukiliya.
Waɗannan buƙatun sun fito ne daga na ɗan lokaci na kusa zuwa abin da ake fata na dogon lokaci, amma a matsayin ƙungiya suna ayyana abin da ya kamata a bayyane gaskiyar ido a cikin sabon sigar Donald Trump na zamaninmu na nukiliya wanda ba zai ƙare ba.
A kakar siyasar shugaban kasa mai zuwa, tambayar nukiliya ita ce kan gaba a ajandar kowane dan takara. Nasa ne a tsakiyar kowane dandalin kuma a zuciyar kowane mai jefa kuri'a ya yanke shawara. Ana buƙatar aiki kafin W76-2 da magadansa su koyar da duniyar bayan Hiroshima abin da yaƙin nukiliya yake da gaske.
James Carroll, TomDispatch yau da kullum kuma tsohon Boston Globe marubuci, shi ne marubucin littattafai 20, kwanan nan littafin labari The Cloister (Ranar biyu). Tarihinsa na Pentagon, Gidan War, ya lashe kyautar PEN-Galbraith. Tarihinsa, Bukatar Amurka, ya lashe lambar yabo ta kasa. Shi ɗan'uwa ne na Kwalejin Fasaha da Kimiyya ta Amurka.
Wannan labarin ya fara bayyana akan TomDispatch.com, gidan yanar gizon Cibiyar ta Nation, wanda ke ba da madaidaiciyar kwararar hanyoyin daban-daban, labarai, da ra'ayi daga Tom Engelhardt, editan dogon lokaci a cikin wallafe-wallafe, wanda ya kafa Cibiyar Daular Amurka, marubucin Ƙarshen Al'adun Nasara, kamar na labari, Kwanakin Ƙarshe na Bugawa. Sabon littafinsa shine A Nation Unmade By War (Littattafan Haymarket).
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