Ana iya gafartawa don karanta wata barazana mai ban mamaki a cikin kalaman da Manjo Janar Eyal Eisenberg na Isra'ila ya yi a farkon wannan makon, shugaban Rundunar Tsaron Tsaron Isra'ila (IDF) Home Front Command. A cikin jawaban da ya zuwa yanzu aka bayar da rahoton galibi a cikin fassarorin, Eisenberg ya ba da shawarar cewa sauye-sauyen yanayin dabarun yankin da rikicin Larabawa ya haifar ya kara “yiwuwar yakin gaba daya” a Gabas ta Tsakiya.[1] "Magana da Cibiyar Nazarin Tsaro ta Kasa," rahotanni jaridar Ha'aretz ta Isra'ila mai sassaucin ra'ayi (Satumba 5), "Eisenberg ya ce irin wannan rikici na iya haɗawa da amfani da makamai masu linzami."
Yayin da waɗannan maganganun za a iya jefa su cikin hasken tsaro, suna ba da dalilin dakatawa idan aka yi la'akari da su tare da daɗaɗɗen koyaswar "kare" Isra'ila. Kamar dai a nanata wannan batu, Ha'aretz ya bibiyi shirin na ranar 6 ga watan Satumba mai alaka da kalubalen diflomasiyya da Isra'ila ke fuskanta a wannan kaka da tambayoyi kan dabarun nukiliya.
Labarin na Satumba 6 Louis René Beres ne ya rubuta, wanda tsawon shekarun da suka gabata ya fassara dabarun yau da kullun zuwa ma'anar tashin hankali na makaman nukiliya. A gaskiya ma, Beres ya gabatar da yunƙurin da Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ta yi na neman zama ƙasa mara ƙarfi ta jagorancin raunana da dogara ga Hukumar Falasɗinawa ta yau a matsayin wata bayyananniyar barazana ga “rayuwar Isra’ila ta zahiri. Bayan Falasdinu,” Beres yayi gardama, “Isra’ila za ta buƙaci dogaro da kai sosai a cikin dukkan lamuran soja. Bi da bi, irin wannan dogaro da kai zai buƙaci: (1) ƙarin cikakkun dabarun nukiliya da ke tattare da ingantacciyar kayyadewa, riga-kafi da damar yaƙi; da (2) daidaitaccen dabarun yaƙi na al'ada da aka sabunta." Don haka, Beres ya sake bayyana cewa, ya zama dole Isra'ila ta karfafa ikonta a fagen "abinda masu dabarun soja ke kira 'sakamakon rinjaye' - wato, ikon iya tantance matakan da za a bi zuwa mafi girman lalacewa."
Wannan duk yana sauti kaɗan. Amma yana da mahimmanci a jaddada abubuwa uku: na farko, cewa ramuwar gayya ba ta dace ba wani bangare ne na koyaswar sojan Isra'ila da ake amfani da su akai-akai ga mummunan sakamako; na biyu, cewa tunani a cikin tsarin dabarun Isra'ila ya ci gaba da danganta tashin hankali na yau da kullun zuwa barazanar nukiliya; da na uku, cewa Beres, ko da yake wani manazarci dabarun dabarun Amurka ne, yana da alaƙa ta kut-da-kut da ci gaban (quasi-) a hukumance na koyarwar nukiliyar Isra'ila.
Rashin daidaituwar tsarin rundunar sojojin Isra'ila
"ramuwar gayya" ba asiri ba ne. Kowace shekara, ana ƙara ko žasa da tabbaci a bainar jama'a. Ka yi la’akari da misalin guda ɗaya kawai na 2011, kalaman ministan tsaron Isra’ila Ehud Barak game da abubuwan da suka faru a farkon Afrilu. A ranar 7 ga Afrilu, wata motar bas ta Isra’ila da ke kusa da Gaza ta ci karo da makami mai linzami, inda wani matashi dan shekara 16 ya ji rauni sosai wanda daga baya ya mutu sakamakon raunukan da ya samu. A ranar 10 ga Afrilu, Barak ya yi tunani a kan hare-haren da Isra’ila ta kai wa: “Sun yi barna sosai: an kashe mutane sama da 20 a cikin kwanaki biyu da suka gabata, kuma an kashe sama da 35 a cikin kwanaki 10 da suka shige.”[2]
Ko da yake cikakkun bayanai da aka ruwaito sun kasance tsararraki, a bayyane yake cewa waɗannan lambobin za su iya
kawai idan sun haɗa dukan Mutuwar Falasdinawa: alal misali, ɗan shekara 10 wanda Kamfanin Dillancin Labaran Faransa ya ba da rahoton mutuwarsa a ranar 10 ga Afrilu; "Nidal Qudeh mai shekaru 19, wacce ke karatun zama sakatariyar likita, da mahaifiyarta… [dukansu sun kashe] a wajen karamin gidansu da tsakar rana a ranar [8 ga Afrilu] lokacin da wani jirgin Isra'ila mara matuki ya harba makami mai linzami" (New York Times, Afrilu 10); da aƙalla wasu da yawa waɗanda ko da mafi kyawun ra'ayi na "maƙarƙashiya" ba zai iya amfani da su ba. Da yake tabbatar da ainihin ma'anar, ministan tsaron jama'a Yitzhak Aharonovitch ya bayyana cewa "babu wani kariya ga kowa a Gaza."[3]
Masu hanawa, ko na soja, diflomasiyya ko na siyasa a cikin hali, na iya kuma wani lokaci suna iyakance aiwatar da wannan koyaswar. Amma
ramuwar gayya mara misaltuwa ita ce, kuma ta daɗe da zama, mulki maimakon banda. "Wadanda suke so su kashe yara a Isra'ila," in ji Dan Halutz, wanda shi kuma ya jagoranci Rundunar Sojojin Isra'ila (IAF) da Babban Hafsan Sojojin IDF, "ya kamata su yi la'akari da cewa za a iya kashe 'ya'yansu." Game da abin da mutum zai iya ji game da kisan gillar da ake yi a iska da kuma yawan “lalata” da suke yi, Halutz ya yi bayani dalla-dalla: “Na ji rauni a cikin jirgin, sakamakon sakin. Bayan dakika guda ya wuce, shi ke nan. Abin da nake ji ke nan.” [4]
Alakar da ke tsakanin irin wannan tashin hankali na gida da barazanar nukiliya, don ta
part, shima yana zuwa dagewa. Daga hannun dama na jam'iyyar Likud, mai kafa kawancen gwamnatin Isra'ila a halin yanzu, da Fashistiyawa mara kunya Moshe Feiglin ya dade yana kan rikodin da gangan yana yin ishara da batun. Da yake tattaunawa da kungiyar Hamas don sakin wasu dubban fursunonin Falasdinawa da ke gidan yarin Isra'ila don neman sakin sojan Isra'ila da aka kama Gilad Shalit, Feiglin yana da wannan kyakkyawan ra'ayi: "Mun dauki jerin sunayen [ fursunonin] da suke so kuma kawai a kashe rabinsu, kuma duk ranar da ba a sake shi ba, sai mu kashe wani. Idan sun kashe shi, to ku kai hari, kuma ku tabbatar da cewa babu wani shugaban Hamas da zai rayu.” Wata hanya ko wata, Feiglin ya jaddada cewa, ikon sojan Isra'ila ya kamata ya ba da damar yin amfani da kalmomin: "Muna da bama-baman nukiliya, kuma ba za mu iya ceton soja mai nisan kilomita 10 ba?"[5].
Tabbas, Feiglin ya wuce gona da iri. Amma har ma a cikin da'irori masu mutuntawa, ana gano alakar alakar da ke tsakanin tashe-tashen hankula da kuma ikon mallakar makaman nukiliya na yankin Isra'ila a kai a kai.
Game da Iran, alal misali, lura cewa da yawa daga cikin manazarta dabarun Isra'ila waɗanda suke ɗauka cewa lallai gwamnatin Iran tana bin hanyar nukiliyar soji sun daɗe da yarda cewa a kowane hali, "tushen dalilanta na ƙoƙarin samun makaman nukiliya shine tsaro da hanawa" ; Irin wannan "ma'auni na ta'addancin nukiliya" duk da haka ana daukarsa a matsayin babbar barazana.[6] Harin farko da Iran ta kai a matsayin wani kyakkyawan ra'ayi ne na rashin gaskiya, abin da ya fi dacewa shi ne cewa mallakar makaman nukiliya daga kowane mai kalubalantar yankin zai iya ba da gudummawa ga "daure dakin Isra'ila don tada zaune tsaye a gaban Falasdinawa da Lebanon". Ko da ba ta fuskanci barazana a fili ba, haka nan mahangar ta tafi, Isra'ila za ta iya hana ta daukar matakin karfi a kan wadanda ta saba kai hari ba tare da wani hukunci ba.
A cikin ayyukan da Isra'ila ta yi kan Falasdinawa da Lebanon a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, to, wace irin barazana ce ta kasance tare da yin amfani da ikon mallakar makamashin nukiliyarta na yanki (wanda ke tare da Amurka, ba shakka)? Anan za mu koma Beres.
Ka tuna cewa Isra'ila tana da matsayi na musamman na "rashin fahimta" ko "rashin fahimta", bakin ciki kamar yadda wannan murfin zai kasance. Duk da haka, tsarin tsaronta wani lokaci yana ba da sigina don nuna jigon koyarwar nukiliyar Isra'ila, galibi tare da haɗin gwiwar abokan kawance. Taron da aka yi a shekara ta 2002 na “Project Daniel,” gungun masu ba da shawara kan dabarun da suka taru don shirya shawarwarin koyarwar nukiliya ga firayim ministan Isra’ila na lokacin Ariel Sharon, wani lamari ne da ya shahara wajen nuni. Project Daniel ya ƙunshi manazarta waɗanda ke da gogewa a Ma'aikatar Tsaro ta Isra'ila, Hukumar Makamashin Nukiliya ta Isra'ila, da Rundunar Sojan Sama ta Isra'ila (IAF). Yin aiki a matsayin kujera ba kowa bane illa Louis René Beres.
A cikin 2009, Beres ya bayyana a fili game da bincikensu a cikin wani rahoto ga babban taron dabarun Isra'ila, taron Herzliya (an gabatar da shawarwarin ga Sharon shekaru da yawa a baya). Beres ya bayyana cewa: “Idan gwamnatin Isra’ila ta yanzu za ta bi shawarar da Project Daniel ya bayar, masu son yin zalunci za su fahimci sarai kuma tun da farko cewa kai wasu nau’ikan hare-hare a kan Isra’ila zai mai da nasu garuruwan tururi da toka.”[8] (Duba labarin nasa daga wannan Talatar da ta gabata don ma'anar inda Beres ya ga a fili "cin zarafin Larabawa".)
A taƙaice, Beres da Project Daniel sun zaɓi daidaita hauka na nukiliyar Amurka na zamanin Nixon cikin tsare-tsaren ayyukan Isra'ila. Daliban yaƙin nukiliya na Amurka na iya tunawa da “dabarun rashin fahimta” na Henry Kissinger, wanda “da nufin yin amfani da ruɗani da ke tattare da duk wani yanayi na rikici, da kuma isar da ra’ayin cewa mutum na iya zama rashin hankali don ɗaukar matakai masu haɗari, har ma da kashe kansa.” A cewar mataimaki na fadar White House H.R. Haldeman (wanda ya shahara a Watergate), Richard Nixon ya yi karin haske kan wannan hanyar a cikin abin da ya kira "Theory of Madman" [9] .
Tare da ƴan zanga-zanga irin na Mississippi da suka yi kaca-kaca a Yammacin Kogin Jordan - duk da cewa suna musanya gicciye mai kona don fentin Magen David, kuma kona masallatai sau da yawa fiye da majami'u - Masu ba da shawara kan manufofin nukiliya na Isra'ila sun bayyana cewa sun sami wata hanyar da za ta ba da mafi kyawun tarihin Amurka zuwa Isra'ila na karni na 21.
Rahoton Herzliya na 2009, don haka, yana nuna dabarun kiyaye rinjayen sojan yankin Isra'ila da 'yancin yin aiki ta hanyar sanya mafi munin al'amuran yankin su zama madadin kawai. Shawarar koyarwarsa na yajin aiki na farko ya dogara ne akan manufar rashin fahimta. Ya kamata 'yan ta'adda na "ramuwar gayya" ta Isra'ila ta haɗa da wasu hare-hare na al'ada a kan Isra'ila, ko ma kawai haɓaka damar da ba na al'ada ba ta wani yanki na yanki. Matsakaicin hare-haren nukiliya ya kamata ya zama m kuma ba a iya faɗi ba, amma ya kamata ya bayyana, à la Nixon, don zama ƙasa marar hankali: "Ko irin wannan nunin zai zama misali na 'rashin hankali' ko na ingantacciyar niyyar yin aiki," Beres ya yi bayanin cewa, “zai zama hasashen kowa.”[10]
Koyarwar yajin aiki na biyu da aka gabatar a cikin lamarin makaman nukiliya ko wasu hare-hare na halitta akan Isra'ila yana fassara mafi girman nau'in bugun gaba na Orientalism zuwa sharuɗɗan soja, yana tattara duk mutane a Gabas ta Tsakiya tare a matsayin maƙiyi mara kyau ba tare da bambancin ƙasa ko na soja / farar hula ba. . Ainihin? Nukiliya ta kai hari a kusan garuruwa goma sha biyar na yankin. "Ba tare da wata shakka ba ana jagorantar jama'ar abokan gaba, ba makamai ko kayan aikin abokan gaba ba."[11] Lalle ne tururi da toka.
Dangane da wannan yanayin, kalaman na wannan makon ta Eisenberg, kamar wasan kwaikwayo na Talata na Beres game da begen "cikakkiyar fansa ta nukiliya" don hare-haren da aka saba kaiwa Isra'ila, sun zama wani abu da ya fi muni fiye da hasashe ko bincike. Yayin da Isra'ila da kawayenta ke barin duniya suna hasashen gine-gine nawa ne 'yan gudun hijirar da ke zaune a cikinta za su kona a wannan shekara, adadin mutanen da sojojin samanta za su yi bama-bamai, da kuma yadda za a iya tabbatar da irin wannan barazanar da ke faruwa a wani lokaci na kisan gilla, da bukatar daukar matakin kasa da kasa. takura zaɓukan Isra'ila sun bayyana sun fi tursasawa.
* * * *
Taron na Herzliya na bana ya tattaro manyan masu kishin Isra'ila da kawayensu a cikin watan Fabrairu, a daidai lokacin da al'ummar Masar ke tayar da kayar bayan mulkin kama-karya na Hosni Mubarak. Da yake jawabi a wurin taron, Amos Gilad, a matsayin wani mutum mai tasiri kamar yadda yake a cikin tsarin tsaro na Isra'ila. bayyana a fili: “A yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya da na Larabawa, babu inda za a yi dimokradiyya; wannan ita ce gaskiya, kuma mun fi son wannan.”
Mutum zai iya fahimtar tunanin. A cikin kwanaki na ƙarshe na shugabancin George W. Bush (December 31 2008), a cikin kisan gilla da aka yi a Gaza wanda ya buɗe abin da a yanzu ya zama sananne a matsayin Operation Cast Lead (tare da matukin jirgi na IAF suna jin fiye da ƴan kumburi), Fadar White House ta yaba da wannan. diplomasiyya mai ma'ana ta Masar, Jordan da Saudiyya.[12] Ba lallai ba ne a faɗi, ba ta hanyar bayar da murya ga jama'a ba ne waɗannan jihohin suka sami yabon Amurka.
Yayin da masu fada a ji a yankin da manyan kasashen yammacin duniya ke aiki tare da dakile tasirin tarzomar dimokuradiyya ta bana, barazanar Isra'ila ta kara dagula al'amura da dama da ke fuskantar gungun jama'a a duk fadin yankin. A cikin irin wannan yanayi, bai kamata a ce nauyin kalubalantar gwamnatin Isra'ila ba ne kawai ga wadanda aka kai musu hari da makamin nukiliya.
-Dan Freeman-Maloy ɗan gwagwarmaya ne kuma marubuci wanda ke zaune a Ingila (kuma ɗalibin bincike a Cibiyar Nazarin Falasdinu ta Turai, Exeter). Yana karbar bakuncin rukunin rubuce-rubuce a notesonhypocrisy.com.
References:
[1] "Maj. Gen. Eisenberg: Ƙarfin Gida…,” Sabis na Labarai na Jihohi (Satumba 6, 2011).
[2] Ehud Barak ya yi hira da Arye Golan, "Isra'ila ta yi alƙawarin tsagaita wuta a Gaza idan Hamas ta dakatar da hare-haren makamai masu linzami," Muryar Isra'ila Network B ta hanyar BBC Monitoring Gabas ta Tsakiya (Afrilu 10, 2011).
[3] "Hamas ta ayyana gaggawar Gaza a cikin hare-haren Isra'ila," Kamfanin Dillancin Labaran Faransa (Afrilu 10, 2011); Fares Akram da Ethan Bronner, "Tashin hankali ya tashi yayin da Isra'ila da Hamas ke ci gaba da kasuwanci," New York Times (Afrilu 10, 2011), shafi. 12; Yaakov Lappin, "'Yana Zama Jagoranci a gare mu," Shugaban Majalisar Eshkol Halin ya gaya wa 'Post.' Aharonovich: Babu wani rigakafi ga kowa a Gaza," Urushalima Post (Afrilu 10, 2011), shafi. 3.
[4] Yoram Peri, Janar-Janar a cikin Dakin Majalisar: Yadda Sojoji Ke Siffata Manufofin Isra'ila (Cibiyar Zaman Lafiya ta Amurka, 2006), p. 181.
[5] Josiah Daniel Ryan, "Kashe Fursunonin Hamas Har sai An Saki Shalit, Likud's Far Dama Ya Gayawa Masu Magana da Turanci," The Urushalima Post (Satumba 23 2009), ta hanyar BBC Sa Ido Gabas ta Tsakiya.
[6] Ifraimu Kam, Iran ta Nukiliya: Menene Ma'anarta, da Me Za a Iya Yi (Cibiyar Nazarin Tsaro ta Kasa, 2007), shafi na 50-53.
[7] Patrick Clawson da Michael Eisenstadt, Wurin Karshe: Sakamakon Rigakafin Matakin Soja akan Iran (Washington, Cibiyar Washington don Manufofin Gabas Gabas, 2008), p. 21.
Louis René Beres, "Isra'ila, Iran da Project Daniel - Takarda Aiki don Taron Herzliya na Shekara na Tara akan Ma'auni na Tsaron Isra'ila da Juriya," Fabrairu 8 (http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_Uploads/2905LouisReneBeres.pdf), p. 2.
[9] Michio Kaku dan Daniel Axelrod, Don cin nasarar Yaƙin Nukiliya: Tsare-tsaren Yaƙin Sirrin Pentagon (Ƙarshen Ƙarshen Kudu, 1987), shafi na 122-123.
[10] Beres, "Isra'ila, Iran da Project Daniel," shafi. 3.
[11] Beres, “Isra’ila, Iran da Daniel Project,” shafi na 6-7. An kara jaddadawa.
[12] Michele K. Esposito, "Sabuwar Kwata-kwata akan Rikici da Diflomasiya, 16 Nuwamba 2008 - 15 Fabrairu 2009," Jaridar Nazarin Falasdinu Vol. 38, No. 3 (Bazara 2009), shafi. 306
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