Ana ɗaukar sabon dabarun tsaron ƙasa na gwamnatin Trump a matsayin canjin teku a manufofin ketare na Amurka, sauyi daga “yaƙin ta’addanci” zuwa "gasar wutar lantarki mai girma," layin da ba zai yi aiki ba a shekarun da suka gabata kafin Yaƙin Duniya na ɗaya. To amma shin da gaske ne sauyin babban sauyi ne, ko kuma sake bayyana manufofin da gwamnatoci huɗu na ƙarshe suka bi?
Amurka ba ta taba cire idanunta daga manyan masu fafatawa da ita ba.
Shugaba Bill Clinton ne ya motsa NATO zuwa gabas, soke yarjejeniyar 1991 da Rashawa don kada su dauki tsoffin membobin Warsaw Pact wanda ke cikin tushen tashin hankali na yanzu tare da Moscow. Kuma, yayin da Amurka da NATO suka yi nuni da mamaye yankin Crimea da Rasha ta yi a matsayin wata alama "revanchist" Moscow, NATO ce ta kafa misali na canza iyakoki lokacin da ta wargaje Serbia don ƙirƙirar Kosovo bayan yakin Yugoslavia na 1999.
Shugaba George W. Bush ne ya ayyana kasar Sin "mai gasa dabarun," da kuma wanda ya yi kokarin jawo Indiya cikin kawancen kin jinin China ta hanyar barin New Delhi ta keta yarjejeniyar hana yaduwar makaman nukiliya. Bari Indiya ta sayi uranium a kasuwannin duniya - an hana ta yin hakan ta ƙin sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar NPT - ya taimaka wajen kunna gasar makamin nukiliya mai haɗari da Pakistan a Kudancin Asiya.
Kuma shugaba Barack Obama ne ya kara kwantar da dangantaka da Rashawa ta hanyar mara wa juyin mulkin 2014 baya a Ukraine, wanda kuma shi ne "tushen Asiya" ya haifar da tashin hankali tsakanin Washington da Beijing.
Don haka ko jettisoning "ta'addanci" a matsayin abokan gaba da ke goyon bayan "manyan iko" kawai tsohon giya, sabon kwalba? Ba sosai ba. Abu ɗaya sabon girmamawa yana da ƙayyadaddun sakamako mafi haɗari a gare shi.
Da yake magana a Johns Hopkins, Sakataren Tsaro James Mattis yayi gargadi, "Idan kun kalubalanci mu, zai zama mafi tsawo kuma mafi munin rana," wani jawabi da aka yi nufi ga Rasha. Britaniya kawar NATO ta kara gaba. Babban hafsan hafsan hafsoshin kasar Birtaniya, Nick Carter, ya bayyana haka Dandalin Tsaro da Tsaro cewa "ƙararmu ta zama amfani da yaƙe-yaƙe na zaɓi tun ƙarshen Yaƙin Cold," amma "watakila ba mu da zaɓi game da rikici da Rasha," in ji "Ka'idodin daidai da 1914 suna da ƙarfi."
Tabbas maganganun da ake yi game da Rasha da China na da ban tsoro. Ana kwatanta Rasha akai-akai a matsayin "mai zafin rai," "mai bita," da "mai faɗaɗawa." A harin baya-bayan nan da aka kai wa kasar Sin, sakataren tsaron Amurka Rex Tillerson, ya bayyana cinikin da Sin ke yi da kasashen Latin Amurka da cewa "Imperial."
Amma a cikin 1914 akwai dauloli da yawa masu ƙarfi da daidaito daidai gwargwado. A yau ba haka lamarin yake ba.
Duk da yake Moscow tabbas tana iya lalata duniya da makamanta na nukiliya, Rasha a yau ba ta da kamanni da 1914 Rasha, ko kuma, ga al'amarin, Tarayyar Soviet.
Amurka da kawayenta A halin yanzu tana kashe fiye da sau 12 abin da Rasha ke yi kan makamanta - dala biliyan 840 zuwa dala biliyan 69 - kuma wannan adadi yana raina ainihin kashe kuɗin soja na Washington. Ba a kirga yawancin kashe kuɗin Amurka a matsayin "soja," gami da makaman nukiliya, a halin yanzu ana sabunta su zuwa dala tiriliyan 1.5.
Ma'auni tsakanin China da Amurka ya fi ko da, amma Amurka ta fi China kusan uku zuwa daya. Hada da kawayen Washington, Japan, Australia da Koriya ta Kudu, kuma wannan adadi ya kusan hudu zuwa daya. A cikin makaman nukiliya, rabon ya fi girma: 26 zuwa 1 don goyon bayan Amurka Ƙara NATO kuma rabo shine 28 zuwa 1.
Wannan ba yana nufin cewa sojojin Rasha da China ba su da mahimmanci.
Shigar da Rasha ta yi a yakin basasar Siriya ya taimaka wajen mayar da martani ga kawancen adawa da Assad da Amurka ta hada. Amma tattalin arzikinta ya yi ƙasa da na Italiya, kuma "tashin hankali" galibi martani ne ga NATO tabbatar da kasancewar a ƙofar Moscow.
Kasar Sin na da muradin soji guda biyu: tabbatar da samar da makamashin da ke kan teku ta hanyar gina sojojin ruwanta, da kuma kafa wani yanki mai kariya a tekun gabashi da kudancin kasar Sin, domin kiyaye abokan gaba da suke da hannu a kai. Don haka ya kera ƙananan jiragen ruwa masu ƙarfi, da makamai masu linzami waɗanda za su iya kiyaye jigilar jiragen saman Amurka daga kewayo, dabarar da ake kira “ƙin yarda da yanki.” Haka kuma ta inganta sojojinta na zamani, tare da rage karfin sojojin da ke kasa da kuma sanya hannun jari a kan kadarorin sama da na ruwa. Koyaya, tana kashe ƙasa da GDP akan sojojinta fiye da Amurka: kashi 1.9 sabanin kashi 3.8.
Beijing ta kasance mai nauyi sosai wajen kafa "insanin yanki," tare da kawar da yawancin makwabta - Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, da Taiwan - ta hanyar yin iƙirarin yawancin tekun Kudancin China da gina sansanonin a cikin tsibirin Paracel da Spratly.
Amma an sha mamaye kasar Sin sau da yawa, tun daga yakin Opium na 1839 da 1856, lokacin da Biritaniya ta tilastawa Sinawa dage haramcin shigar da maganin. Japan ta mamaye a 1895 da 1937. Idan Sinawa sun tabo game da gabar teku, da wuya mutum ya zarge su.
Duk da haka, kasar Sin ita ce babbar kasa ta Amurka kuma ta biyu mafi karfin tattalin arziki a duniya. Ya maye gurbin Amurka a matsayin babbar abokiyar ciniki ta Latin Amurka kuma cikin nasara waje Yunkurin Washington na dakile tasirin tattalin arzikinta. Lokacin da Amurka ta nemi manyan kawayenta da su kauracewa sabon bankin zuba jari na kayayyakin more rayuwa na Asiya, ban da Japan, sun yi biris da Washington.
Duk da haka, nasarar kasuwanci ba ta zama "sarauta ba."
Shin wannan sabon yakin cacar baki ne, lokacin da Amurka ta yi yunƙurin kewaye da keɓe Tarayyar Soviet? Akwai kamanceceniya, amma yakin cacar baka ya kasance yakin akida tsakanin tsari biyu, gurguzu da jari hujja. Yakin da ake yi a yau shine kan samun kasuwa da mallake tattalin arziki. Lokacin da Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka Rex Tillerson ya gargadi Latin Amurka game da China da Rasha, ba batun "rikitar gurguzu ba," amma kasuwanci.
Akwai wasu 'yan wasa bayan wannan canjin.
Na ɗaya, manyan masana'antun makamai-Lockheed Martian, Boeing, Raytheon, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, da Janar Dynamics - suna da tsabar kuɗi da yawa don fitar da lokacin zaɓe. "Gasar wutar lantarki mai girma" za ta kasance mai tsada, tare da abubuwa masu yawa na tikiti: masu jigilar jiragen sama, jiragen ruwa, jiragen ruwa na sama, da kuma faɗaɗa sojojin iska.
Wannan ba yana nufin Amurka ta sauya manufofinta na ketare ba saboda sha'awar kamfanonin makamai, amma suna da wurin zama a teburin. Kuma idan aka yi la’akari da cewa waɗancan kamfanonin sun bazu a duk jihohin 50, wakilan siyasa na cikin gida da gwamnoni suna da ruwa da tsaki wajen kiyayewa da faɗaɗa waɗancan ayyukan da ake biyan kuɗi.
Haka kuma 'yan Republican ba za su sami adawa mai yawa game da karuwar kashe kudade na tsaro daga 'yan Democrat ba, wadanda da yawa daga cikinsu sun yi kaurin suna kamar takwarorinsu na kan hanya. Babban kashe kashen tsaro—haɗe da lissafin rage haraji na baya-bayan nan—zai kawar da bayar da kuɗi da yawa daga cikin shirye-shiryen da ‘yan jam’iyyar Democrat ke riƙe da su. Tabbas, ga 'yan Republican cewa matsalar ita ce babbar fa'ida: yanke haraji, haɓaka kashe kuɗi na tsaro, sannan rushe ayyukan zamantakewa, Tsaron Jama'a da Medicare don hidima ga kasawa.
Kuma da yawa daga cikin 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suna kan gaba idan ana batun lalata da Rashawa. Bug-a-boo na Rasha ya bai wa Jam'iyyar damar karkata zargin rashin nasarar Hillary Clinton zuwa magudin zabe da Moscow ta yi, don haka ta kaucewa yin nazarin yakin neman zabenta na rashin fahimta da shirin siyasa na rashin tunani.
Akwai kuma wasu 'yan wasan kwaikwayo da ke tura wannan sabuwar mahimmanci, ciki har da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na gwamnatin Bush da suka kaddamar da yakin Iraki. Sabuwar manufarsu ita ce Iran, duk da cewa hauhawar Iran zuwa matakin "babban iko" abin dariya ne. Kasafin kudin sojan Iran ya kai dala biliyan 12.3. Kasar Saudiyya ita kadai tana kashe dala biliyan 63.7 wajen samar da tsaro, wanda kadan bai kai kasar Rasha ba, wacce ke da yawan al'umma har sau biyar sannan ta ninka girman kasa. A wata arangama tsakanin Iran da Amurka da kawayenta na cikin gida, rarrabuwar kawuna a karfin soji zai yi kadan fiye da 66 zuwa 1.
Duk da haka, dangane da bala'i, Hatta Iraki za ta yi shuhura kafin yaki da Iran.
Wuri mafi hadari a duniya a halin yanzu shi ne yankin Koriya, inda bisa ga dukkan alamu gwamnatin Trump za ta yi kaca-kaca da wani nau'in zanga-zangar soji da ba za ta haifar da yakin nukiliya ba. Amma ta yaya China za ta mayar da martani game da harin da ka iya sanya sojojin da ke gaba da juna a kan iyakar kudancinta?
Yin tafiya zuwa Moscow na iya haifar da sakamako kuma. Andrei Kostin, shugaban daya daga cikin manyan bankunan Rasha, VTB, ya shaida wa Financial Times cewa ƙara ƙarin takunkumi akan Rasha "zai zama kamar ayyana yaƙi,"
Matsalar sanya “manyan iko” a matsayin abokan gābanku ita ce kawai za su ɗauki kalmar ku kuma su amsa daidai.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
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