Kafofin watsa labarai na kamfanoni, masana'antu na masana'antu, da kuma jami'an Demokradiyya sun kasance sara a bit don dora laifin hasarar zaben tsakiyar wa'adi da jam'iyyar za ta yi a ranar Talata kan masu ci gaba da kuma wani labari da aka riga aka tsara game da alamar 'yan Democrat da ake zaton wuce gona da iri. Daga nan, sakamakon ya fara birgima.
Har yanzu ba a bayyana jam'iyyar da za ta mallaki Majalisar ko Majalisar Dattijai ba, amma wannan ba shine "jajayen igiyar ruwa" da kuri'un da aka yi hasashe ba, ko kuma zubar da jini na tsakiyar wa'adi da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suka fuskanta a karkashin Shugaba Barack Obama a 2010 da 2014. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, jam'iyyar da ke mulki. Fadar White House ta kusan rasa kujeru a tsakiyar wa'adi, ban da tsakiyar wa'adi na 2002 lokacin da 'yan jam'iyyar Republican suka dawo da majalisar dattijai albarkacin "yakin da ta'addanci" na Shugaba George W. Bush.
Yayin da masu kada kuri'a a bana suka ki bayar da tsawatarwa ga jam'iyyar da ke mulki, sun nuna ta hanyar matakan jefa kuri'a, zaben fidda gwani, da kuma babban binciken da za a gudanar a kan muhimman batutuwan da suka hada da 'yancin zubar da ciki, kiwon lafiya, mafi karancin albashi, 'yancin ma'aikata na hadin gwiwa. ciniki, da halatta tabar wiwi, masu zaɓe sun fi ci gaba fiye da zaɓaɓɓun jami'ai da masana harkokin watsa labarai na kamfanoni suna kulawa.
Dalilai da dama na iya bayyana irin rawar da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suka yi ba zato ba tsammani a cikin zagayowar tsakiyar wa'adi, kamar hukuncin da Kotun Koli ta yanke wanda ba a yarda da shi ba na soke haƙƙin tsarin mulki na zubar da ciki da bayyanar masu jefa ƙuri'a na kin amincewa da 'yan takarar Republican masu dangantaka da tsohon shugaban Amurka Donald Trump. Amma akwai wani mahimmin ɗaukar nauyi wanda yakamata 'yan Democrat su ɗauka a zuciya.
Sakamakon ya nuna cewa lokacin da Jam'iyyar Dimokuradiyya ta saurari gefenta na ci gaba kuma ta amince da shawarwari masu karfi kamar biyan harajin yara, soke bashin dalibai, da kuma yawan kashe kudaden yanayi, masu jefa kuri'a sun ba wa 'yan siyasarta.
Maɓallin Takeaways
1. Tsarin populism na tattalin arziki yana aiki a cikin jihohin swing.
Hikimar al'ada na tsawon shekaru ita ce 'yan Democrat da ke gudana a cikin jahohin da za su ba da kansu a matsayin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na abokantaka. Amma a cikin Lever's nutsewa mai zurfi game da zaben Pennsylvania, tsohon babban mai binciken kudi na jihar ya gaya mana cewa dan takarar gwamna Josh Shapiro "ya ci gaba da kasancewa a tsakiyar hagu a duk tsawon lokacin, kuma ina ganin hakan yana da matukar muhimmanci ga samun nasara a fadin jihar." Sakamakon zaben ya nuna haka.
a cikin Jiha Keystone, Dukansu Shapiro da dan takarar Majalisar Dattawa John Fetterman sun yi nasarar yakin neman zaben populist kuma sun yi fice sosai a sakamakon zaben Shugaba Joe Biden na 2020 a mafi yawan al'adun jam'iyyar Republican na jihar. Haka abin yake Ohio: ko da yake dan Democrat Tim Ryan ya sha kaye a takara, ya yi yakin neman zabe a kan wani ajanda na ma'aikata, kuma aikin dimokuradiyya ma ya karu a wuraren GOP na jihar. Kuma a cikin Colorado, Sanata Michael Bennet kamfani akan matakan tattalin arziƙin jama'a kamar faɗaɗa kiredit ɗin harajin yara da kuma amfana da mafi girman ayyukan Demokraɗiyya a yankunan GOP na jihar.
Sabanin haka, ƙarin kamfen ɗin Demokraɗiyya masu ra'ayin mazan jiya a duk faɗin jihar North Carolina da kuma Iowa ya yi daidai da akasin yanayin: mafi girman raƙuman GOP fiye da 2020 a cikin sassan jihar masu ra'ayin Republican. A Virginia, wakiliyar Democrat Elaine Luria ita ma ta yi rashin nasara a tseren kusa bayan kira haramcin kasuwancin hannun jari na majalisa "bullshit" - kuma ana kai hari ga wadancan tsokaci akan hanyar yakin neman zabe.
2. Yawancin masu jefa kuri'a ba su sayi karyar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba.
Yawancin shugabannin kafafen yada labarai na kamfanoni da 'yan siyasar Republican sun kwashe watanni suna jayayya cewa kashe kudaden agaji na COVID-19 na gwamnatin Biden shine babban abin da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Takaitacciyar hujjar, Sakataren Baitulmalin Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, idan aka kwatanta Biden ga Jimmy Carter a cikin Afrilu, yana mai cewa: "Shirin Ceto ya cika sararin samaniya don saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci a cikin Tsarin Gina Baya mafi Kyau. Kuma mutuwar Carter ya nuna cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki babbar barazana ce ga siyasar ci gaba."
The latest Binciken masu jefa kuri'a na Fox News Binciken, wani babban zaɓen zaɓe, ya gano cewa wannan labarin ya yi tasiri, amma bai wuce gona da iri ba: kashi 54 cikin ɗari na Amurkawa sun yi imanin cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya samo asali ne daga manufofin Biden, yayin da kashi 46 cikin XNUMX na zargin abubuwan da ke waje da ikon Biden.
A gaskiya, kamfanoni cin riba ya kasance babban direban hauhawar farashin - ba shirye-shiryen agaji na annoba ko karuwar albashi ba, kamar yadda manyan masanan yada labarai za su so ku yi imani.
Washegari bayan zaben, manazarta Morgan Stanley sun fitar da wata sanarwa memo yana mai cewa jam'iyyar Biden da ta hana wani ra'ayi na GOP da ake tsammanin zai "kashe ra'ayin cewa hauhawar farashin kaya alhakin zabe ne ga 'yan Democrat." Sanarwar ta kara da cewa: "Masu saka hannun jari na iya ganin wannan sakamakon a matsayin izini ga jam'iyyar don sauƙaƙa matsalolin siyasa da na doka wanda ya hana Majalisa aiwatar da wasu manufofin faɗaɗa kasafin kuɗi waɗanda ke cikin ainihin ajandar Shugaba Biden na 'Gina Baya'. "
3. Masu zabe suna da ra'ayi mai ban mamaki.
Fox News iri daya nazarin masu jefa kuri'a ya gano cewa yawancin Amurkawa suna da ra'ayi na ci gaba game da kiwon lafiya, bindigogi, launin fata, da sauran muhimman batutuwa. Sakamakon zaben ya yi karo da hikimar al'ada a tsakanin jami'an Demokradiyya: 'yan kwanaki da suka gabata, alal misali, an nakalto dan jam'iyyar Democrat David Shor. Magazine Magazine kamar yadda yake cewa, "Babu wani matsin lamba da zai sa 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat su kirkiro Medicare ga Duk, saboda jama'a ba sa so."
Kuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a ta Fox News, ta gano cewa kashi 65 cikin 2020 na masu kada kuri'a na ganin ya kamata gwamnatin tarayya ta rataya a wuyanta ta tabbatar da cewa dukkan Amurkawa suna da tsarin kula da lafiya. Fox XNUMX binciken farko sami irin wannan babban tallafi - kashi 70 - don ra'ayin barin mutane su saya cikin tsarin kula da lafiyar gwamnati, wanda aka fi sani da zaɓi na jama'a. Biden yayi yakin neman zabe akan zabin jama'a, amma bai ambata ba ra'ayin sau ɗaya a matsayin shugaban kasa.
4. Masu ci gaba sun yi nasara a akwatin zabe.
Godiya ga tsirarun tseren gidan radar, an saita masu ci gaban majalisa don faɗaɗa matsayinsu tare da sabon masu zuwa kamar Summer Lee a Pennsylvania, Delia Ramirez a Illinois, Maxwell Frost a Florida, da Greg Casar a Texas.
Su ma masu ci gaba sun sami nasarori kan matakan da suka dauka na kada kuri’a, inda suka nuna cewa masu kada kuri’a sun goyi bayan tsare-tsare kamar kara yawan mafi karancin albashi da harajin masu hannu da shuni, duk da cewa zababbun ‘yan siyasarsu sun kasa kafa su.
Ma'auni na zaɓi share a akwatin jefa kuri'a, yayin da masu jefa kuri'a suka ba da damar zubar da ciki a cikin kundin tsarin mulkin jihohi a California, Michigan, da Vermont, da kuma cin nasara kan matakin hana zubar da ciki a Kentucky. Nebraskans amince mafi ƙarancin albashi na $15, da masu jefa ƙuri'a a Washington, DC, zabe don kawar da mafi ƙarancin albashin ma'aikata. (Ɗauki wannan, mashahurin shugaba Jose Andres.) A Massachusetts, masu jefa ƙuri'a amince kashi 4 cikin dari akan kudaden shiga sama da dala miliyan 1.
Wannan ba duka ba ne: ma'aunin zaɓe na sasantawa na gama-gari lashe da fadi da rata in Illinois. Masu zabe halattaccen cannabis don amfani da nishaɗi a Maryland da Missouri. A South Dakota, masu jefa kuri'a ya wuce kuri'ar raba gardama don fadada Medicaid. An shigar da matakan kula da haya Richmond, California, kuma orange County, Florida, kodayake Florida ta auna yana da makoma mara tabbas, godiya ga kalubalen kotu daga masu gidaje.
5. Soke basussukan dalibai ya taimaka wa ‘yan jam’iyyar Democrat.
'Yan jam'iyyar Democrat na iya samun matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a - da kuma soke bashin ɗalibai - don godiya ga kyakkyawan aikin da jam'iyyar ta yi a daren Talata. Na farko bayanai sun nuna masu jefa ƙuri'a 'yan ƙasa da shekaru talatin sun goyi bayan 'yan Democrat a tseren House da kusan tazara 2-1. Duk da yake wannan shine tazarar da matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a suka fifita 'yan Democrat a cikin zagayowar biyun da suka gabata, kuma kaso na matasa na zaɓe ya ci gaba da kusan kashi 12 cikin ɗari, matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a sune. kawai shekaru alƙaluma don fifita 'yan Democrat da gagarumin rinjaye.
Wannan shine ainihin abin da masu ci gaba suka ce zai faru lokacin da suka matsa wa Biden sama da shekara guda don soke bashin ɗalibai. Tallafawa tsakanin matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a don soke bashin ɗalibai ya kasance as high as Kashi 85 bisa 2022, bisa ga ra'ayin matasa na Harvard da aka gudanar a bazara XNUMX. Bayanan Afrilu don Ci gaba zabe ya gano cewa kusan rabin masu jefa ƙuri'a a cikin manyan jihohin yaƙi za su iya yin zaɓe idan Biden ya cika alkawarin da ya yi na yaƙin neman zaɓe na soke bashin ɗalibai.
Sakamakon zaben dai ya tilastawa daya daga cikin masu rinjaye mai sukar na soke bashin dalibai zuwa yarda yayi kuskure. "Ina tsammanin yafe bashin dalibai mummunar manufa ce da kuma mummunar siyasa," in ji tsohon marubucin jawabin Bush David Frum. "Har yanzu ina tsammanin [watakila] mummunar manufa - amma duba da karuwar kuri'un matasa, [yana da wuya] musan tasirin siyasarsa. Kuma idan ya taimaka ceto kasar daga Trumpism, abubuwan da suka dace fiye da biyan marasa kyau. "
6. Ayyukan yanayi don nasara.
'Yan jam'iyyar Democrat sun zartas da kudurin dokar sauyin yanayi mafi girma a tarihin Amurka a wannan bazarar ba tare da kuri'ar Republican guda daya ba, tare da ba da jari mai yawa a cikin makamashi mai tsafta. Amma duk da haɗewar adawar su, 'yan Republican da kyar aka kai hari dokar kan hanyar yakin neman zabe.
Wataƙila akwai kyakkyawan dalili na hakan: Fox News binciken binciken masu jefa kuri'a ya gano cewa kashi 53 cikin 61 na Amurkawa sun yi imanin cewa ya kamata manufofin makamashin Amurka su yi niyyar fadada amfani da sauran makamashin da suka hada da iska da hasken rana, maimakon fadada samar da mai. Wannan kuri'ar ta gano cewa kashi XNUMX cikin XNUMX na Amurkawa sun damu matuka ko kadan game da tasirin sauyin yanayi a cikin al'ummominsu.
7. Masu kada kuri'a na jam'iyyar Democrat sun kasance marasa gamsuwa.
Babban al'amari a cikin 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat mafi ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani yana nunawa a ƙasa ya zama babban tsammanin masu jefa ƙuri'unsu. An NBC zaben fitar da gwani sun kama wani nishi mai zurfi na murabus a akwatin zabe, tare da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yi nasara a cikin masu jefa kuri'a wadanda "sun ƙi yarda" aikin Joe Biden. Gabaɗaya, fiye da bakwai cikin masu jefa ƙuri'a goma sun ce "ba su gamsu" ko "sun fusata ba," a cewar zaben fitar da gwani wanda Edison Research ya gudanar.
Irin wannan sakamakon ya nuna cewa masu jefa ƙuri'a na Demokradiyya ba su da hurumin jefa ƙuri'a ga 'yan takararsu; ba za su iya jure wa madadin ba.
Don haka idan 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suka sami damar rataya kan ikon Majalisa, zai yi wuya a ce sun gaji dabarun tsayawa tsayin daka don godewa. Maimakon haka, lokaci ya yi da jam'iyyar za ta ɗauki wasu manyan, m swings. Wannan bazara, ƙididdiga kaɗan da aka lura a ciki zabe na NBC News An sami kusan kashi biyu bisa uku na masu jefa ƙuri'a na Demokradiyya sun ce suna son ɗan takarar "wanda ke ba da shawarar manyan manufofi waɗanda ke da tsada kuma suna iya zama da wahala a zartar da doka, amma na iya kawo babban canji" - ba wanda ke da alaƙa da gefe.
A gaskiya ma, sabon Binciken bincike na masu jefa kuri'a na Fox News ya gano cewa kashi 53 cikin 47 na Amurkawa sun ce "ya kamata gwamnati ta kara yin kokarin magance matsalolin," idan aka kwatanta da kashi XNUMX cikin XNUMX da suka ce gwamnati "tana yin abubuwa da yawa da ya fi dacewa ga 'yan kasuwa da daidaikun mutane."
8. "Me muke yi yanzu?"
Shahararriyar ƙarshen fim ɗin 1972 na gargajiya Dan Takarar shows Dan majalisar dattijai na Democrat ya lashe zaben sannan ya juya ga mai taimaka masa ya tambaye shi: "Me muke yi yanzu?" Akwai irin wannan kuzari a wasa a yanzu. Gabaɗaya, 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat ba su yi yaƙin neman zaɓe ba a kan wata ajanda da ta wuce yin alkawarin ba za su bar 'yan Republican su saci zaɓe ko ƙara lalata haƙƙin haifuwa ba.
Wannan ya bar mu da wata budaddiyar tambaya: Idan ko ta yaya jam’iyyar ta ci gaba da rike madafun iko a Majalisa, me ta ke shirin yi na tsawon shekaru biyu masu zuwa? Sakamakon zaben ya nuna cewa ba a hukunta 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat saboda manyan jari kamar shirin ceton Amurka, dokar rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, da yafe basussukan dalibai. Don haka watakila lokaci ya yi da za a ci gaba da ci gaba da aiwatar da tsarin tattalin arziƙin jama'a na gaskiya - ta hanyar matsi mai ƙarfi da ci gaba.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
Bada Tallafi