[an gyara 11/5/04*]
Wani dalili na yakin Iraqi shi ne kawar da gwamnatin Saddam Hussein na dabbanci, ta yadda za a kubutar da 'yan Iraki daga barazanar kisa daga hannun gwamnatinsa. Amma duk da haka, tun daga kwanakin farko na yaƙin, an ba da labarin mutuwar fararen hula na Iraqi a hannun “dakarun haɗin gwiwa” da kuma ƙarin laifuffuka da hargitsi da suka mamaye yawancin ƙasar.
Amurka da Birtaniya da sauran kawayenta sun yi ikirarin cewa suna yin duk abin da za su iya don hana halaka fararen hula. Amma duk da haka, sau da yawa ana bayyana na fararen hula da ke mutuwa a wuraren binciken ababen hawa, a wucewar ayarin motocin Amurka, a cikin bincike gida, da kuma hare-haren bama-bamai da ake zargin cewa ana kai wa sansanonin 'yan ta'adda hari. Rahotanni sun kuma bayyana game da karuwar adadin kisan kai.[1] Idan adadin mutuwar fararen hula na Iraqi ya karu sosai tun bayan mamayar, hakan zai rage ma'anar yakin da ya rage na karshe.
To, Iraqi nawa ne suka mutu tun bayan mamayar a watan Maris na 2003 da kuma mamayar da yaki? Amurka ta sha nanata cewa ba ta bin diddigin mutuwar fararen hula. A cikin munanan kalmomi na Janar Tommy Franks, "Ba mu yin kirga jiki"[2] (ko da yake, iƙirarin ya ci gaba da cewa Amurka tana yin kirga na sirri [3]). Bugu da ƙari kuma, lokacin da ma'aikatar lafiya ta Iraki ta yi ƙoƙarin ƙidayar mutuwar fararen hula, a taƙaice hukumomin mamaya na Amurka sun ba su umarnin dakatar da su.[4]
Yayin da sojojin Amurka da hukumomin mamaya na iya yin ikirarin cewa ba su da sha'awar mutuwar fararen hula na Iraki, mutanen kirki a duniya sun damu da sanin ko 'yan Irakin sun mutu bayan mamayewa a farashin da zai lalata duk wani fa'idar jin kai na yakin.
Wataƙila mafi kyawun kiyasin mutuwar fararen hula daga yaƙin shine na aikin Ƙididdigar Jikin Iraki.[5] Wannan rukunin masu bincike da ke Biritaniya ya yi nazari a tsanake a yammacin duniya tare da tattara duk bayanan da aka samu na farar hula. Suna tsara duk mutuwar da majiyoyi biyu suka bayar da rahoton kansu. Dangane da wannan tsattsauran hanya, sun kiyasta asarar fararen hula daga mamayar har zuwa ranar 29 ga Oktoba, 2004 a tsakanin 14,181 da 16,312. Wasu ƙididdiga sun fito daga Cibiyar Brookings [6] (tsakanin 15,200 da 31,400 "an kashe sakamakon tashin hankali daga yaki da aikata laifuka tsakanin Mayu, 2003 da Satumba 30, 2004." Wasu ƙididdigansu sun dogara ne akan bayanan Jikin Iraki) , da Kifah mutanen Iraqi[7] (ta hanyar binciken gida sun gano mutuwar mutane 37,000 tsakanin Maris da Oktoba 2003).
Ban da kiyasin Kifah na Jama'a, wanda za a iya ɗauka a matsayin wanda ake zargi da kasancewa ƙungiyar masu adawa da mamaya kuma ba su buga wani cikakken bayani game da hanyoyinsu ba (wanda ya shafi watanni takwas na farko na yaƙi da mamayar), waɗannan ƙididdiga sun fi yawa. dangane da asusun latsawa na yamma. Kamar yadda kididdigar Jikin Iraki ta yarda, irin wadannan bayanan na iya yin watsi da mace-mace kamar yadda da yawa, watakila akasari, fadace-fadace da sauran ayyukan soji, da sakamakon mutuwar Iraqi, galibi ba a ba da rahoton ba sai dai idan sojojin kawancen sun sami raunuka[8]. Bugu da kari, a cikin 'yan watannin da suka gabata 'yan jaridun yammacin duniya ba su iya tafiya a cikin kasar Iraki ba, wanda ke nufin cewa ko da irin wadannan manyan ikirari na yawan mutuwar fararen hula daga harin bam na Amurka, kamar yadda harin bam da Amurka ta kai kan wasu 'yan Iraki 45 a wani bikin aure a garin. Mogr el-Deeb a watan Mayu[9] ba a iya tantance kansa ba. Don haka, duk alkaluman da aka yi a baya na mutuwar fararen hula na Iraki tun bayan mamayewar mai yiwuwa a kan karamin bangare ne.
Domin magance tambayar adadin mutuwar mutanen Iraqi nawa ne suka faru, wata tawagar masu bincike kan harkokin kiwon lafiyar jama'a daga Makarantar Kiwon Lafiyar Jama'a ta Johns Hopkins Bloomberg, Makarantar Nursing ta Jami'ar Columbia, da Kwalejin Kimiyya ta Jami'ar Al-Mustansiriya da ke Bagadaza ta dauki nauyin aikin. wani bincike na annoba game da mace-mace na ''Iraƙi'' tun bayan mamayewar Maris, 2003.[10] Wannan ƙungiyar bincike mai ƙarfi ta haɗu da ƙwararrun cututtukan cututtukan cuta tare da tushen nazarin mutane a cikin bala'i da yanayin gaggawa da zurfin ilimin Iraki. Mambobin tawagar sun gudanar da bincike da tuntubar juna a sassa da dama na duniya, ciki har da Iraki, Afirka kudu da hamadar Sahara, da Gabashin Turai kuma sun yi aiki da irin wadannan kungiyoyi kamar Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya da Cibiyar Yaki da Cututtuka ta Amurka.[11-13] XNUMX]
Sakamakon binciken da wannan kungiyar ta gudanar ya baiwa mutane da yawa mamaki. Masu binciken sun yi kiyasin cewa an sami karin mutuwar mutane 98,000 a cikin watanni 18 bayan mamayar fiye da yadda za a yi idan da a ce 'yan Iraqi sun mutu daidai da watanni 15 kafin mamayar.
Wannan rahoto ya tayar da guguwa sosai. Gwamnatin Burtaniya ta kalubalanci hakan.[14] Jaridar Washington Post ta nakalto wani "babban manazarci na soji" a kungiyar kare hakkin bil'adama ta Human Rights Watch yana cewa "Hanyoyin da suka yi amfani da su tabbas suna da saurin hauhawa saboda yawan kiba…. Ga alama waɗannan lambobin sun yi yawa.”[15] A gefe guda kuma, yawancin masu sukar yaƙi da ci gaba da mamayar Amurka sun yi watsi da waɗannan sakamakon a matsayin ƙarin shaida na barna na mamayewar Amurka da Burtaniya.[16-20]
To ta yaya mutum zai tantance wannan binciken? Duk da yake yana iya zama jaraba ga waɗanda suka fusata da wannan yaƙi tun daga farko su karɓi waɗannan sakamakon ba tare da wani zargi ba, waɗanda mu ma waɗanda suka yi imani ya kamata siyasarmu ta kasance ta hanyar gaskiya kuma binciken gaskiya ya kamata ya kusanci waɗannan binciken da hankali. Duk binciken da aka yi ta cece-kuce yana buƙatar a bincika a hankali don shaidar matsalolin hanyoyin ko wasu lahani.
A matsayina na mai fafutuka wanda kuma mai bincike ne na tunanin mutum da lafiyar jama'a tare da gogewa wajen gudanar da bincike-bincike, kuma malamin kididdiga da hanyoyin bincike na zamantakewa, Ina so in kalli wannan binciken don taimakawa masu karatu su tantance shi da kansu. Masu bincike tun da wuri sun koyi wauta na haɗawa da sakamako kawai saboda suna goyon bayan gaskatawar da muka riga muka yi.
Da farko zan ɗan yi bayanin hanyoyin binciken. Sannan zan tantance shi.
Hanyar Karatu
Masu binciken sun yi amfani da wata dabarar cututtukan cututtukan gargajiya da ake kira da clustered sample survey. Ba tare da samun cikakkun bayanai na fasaha ba, an raba ƙasar zuwa lamba (33 a cikin wannan misalin) na ƙungiyoyin ƙungiyoyi kuma an zaɓi al'umma ba da gangan ba daga kowane gungu. A cikin kowace al'umma, na'urori na Global Positioning System (GPS) da aka haɗa tare da lambobi bazuwar an yi amfani da su don zaɓar wani batu a cikin al'umma. Sannan an duba gidaje 30 mafi kusa; wadannan gidaje 30 ana kiransu da a
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
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