Arma nuklearren aurkako gaurko protesta publikoak nagusiekin alderatu ezin diren arren antinuklearren gorabeherak azken hamarkadetan, estatubatuar gehienek Trump administrazioaren arma nuklear politikak arbuiatzen dituzten zantzu argiak daude.
2017an karguan sartu zenetik, Trump administrazioak Estatu Batuak erretiratu ditu Iranekin akordio nuklearra, tarteko Indar Nuklearren (INF) Ituna bertan behera utzi zuen Errusiarekin, eta, itxuraz, planak bertan behera utzi zituen START Itun Berria berritu with Russia. After an overwhelming majority of the world’s nations agreed on a landmark UN Arma Nuklearraren Debekuei buruzko Ituna 2017ko uztailean, Trump administrazioak azkar iragarri zuen egingo zuela inoiz sinatu the treaty. The only nuclear arms control measure that the Trump administration has pursued―an agreement by North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program―appears to erori egin dira, neurri batean behintzat Trumpen administrazioak gaizki kudeatu zituelako negoziazioak.
Gainera, Trump administrazioak bere aurreko demokraten eta errepublikanoen arma nuklearren kontrol eta armagabetze politikari jarraitu ez ezik, arma nuklearren lasterketa berritu batean murgildu da beste nazioekin batera. $ 1.7 bilioi programa to refurbish the entire U.S. nuclear weapons complex. Perhaps most alarming, it has berriro berriro publikoki gerra nuklearra hasteko mehatxua egin zuen.
Politika hauek AEBetako iritzi publikoarekin nahiko ez daude.
2018ko uztailean estatubatuarrei galdeketa egin zien Trumpek AEBak Irango akordio nuklearretik ateratzeari buruz, Chicagoko Global Affairs Kontseilua found that 66 percent of respondents preferred remaining within it. In February 2019, when the Chicagoko Kontseilua surveyed Americans about U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, 54 percent opposed the action. Moreover, when Americans were presented with arguments for and against withdrawal, opposition to withdrawal rose to 66 percent.
The Nazioarteko eta Segurtasun Ikasketen Zentroa at the University of Maryland also reported overwhelming public support for nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements. Polling Americans in early 2019, the Center found that two-thirds of respondents (including a majority of Republicans) favored remaining within the INF Treaty, while eight out of ten respondents wanted the U.S. government to extend the New START Treaty. Indeed, more than eight out of ten U.S. respondents backed new nuclear arms control treaties with Russia―findings similar to those of the Chicagoko Kontseilua, 87 hasieran inkestatu zuten amerikarren ehuneko 2019k AEBek eta Errusiak arma nuklearrak mugatzeko akordio gehiago ziurtatzea nahi zutela jakinarazi zuen.
But just how much arms control and disarmament do Americans want? It might come as a shock to the many pundits in the mass media who have never mentioned the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, but roughly half the U.S. population supports nuclear abolition along the lines of the treaty. According to a YouGov iritzi inkesta done in late September 2019, 49 percent of American respondents thought the United States should work with other nations to eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world. Only 32 percent disagreed, while 19 percent said they didn’t know.
When it comes to actual use of nuclear weapons, Americans are even clearer in their preferences. A YouGov/Huffington Post inkesta in August 2016 found that 67 percent of American respondents thought the U.S. government should never initiate a nuclear attack. In mid-2019, Zogby Analytics inkestak Estatu primario nagusietako inkestatu estatubatuarren artean ere arma nuklearren lehen erabileraren aurkako oposizio maila oso altua aurkitu zuten.
Not surprisingly, Donald Trump’s angry, impulsive behavior, coupled with his threats to launch nuclear attacks upon other nations, has left many Americans uneasy. This might help to explain why 68 percent of Americans surveyed in early 2019 by the Nazioarteko eta Segurtasun Ikasketen Zentroa backed congressional legislation requiring that a president, before ordering a nuclear attack upon another nation, consult with congress and secure a congressional declaration of war upon that nation. As the U.S. congress has not passed a declaration of war since 1941, this opinion, too, provides a substantial challenge to current U.S. nuclear policy.
There are other indications, as well, that the American public wants a new approach. In July 2019, the U.S. Conference of Mayors, at its 87th annual meeting, unanimously passed bereizmen bat calling on all U.S. presidential candidates “to pledge U.S. global leadership in preventing nuclear war, returning to diplomacy, and negotiating the elimination of nuclear weapons.” Calling for negotiations to replace the INF Treaty and to extend or replace the New START Treaty, the resolution demanded that candidates support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and renounce the option of first use of nuclear weapons.
Oraindik desadostasun publikoaren beste seinale bat da Back from the Brink kanpaina sortzen ari dena, euskarria numerous peace, environmental, religious, health, and other organizations. Endorsed by dozens of cities and towns across the country, it has also received the official backing of the state legislatures of California and Oregon, as well as of the New Jersey State Assembly and the Maine State Senate. The campaign eskatzen dio AEBetako gobernuari “gerra nuklearra prebenitzeko ahalegin global bat buru” honako hauen bidez: “lehenengo arma nuklearrak erabiltzeko aukerari uko egitea”; "AEBetako edozein presidentek eraso nuklear bat abiarazteko duen aginte bakarrarekin amaitzea"; "AEBetako arma nuklearrak ile-abiarazleen alertatik kentzea"; "Bere arsenal nuklear osoa arma hobetuekin ordezkatzeko plana bertan behera uztea"; eta "arma nukleardun estatuen arteko akordio egiaztagarri bat aktiboki bilatzea beren armategi nuklearrak ezabatzeko".
Looked at from the standpoint of most Americans and, indeed, survival in the nuclear age, this departure from the dangerous direction of U.S. nuclear policy makes a lot of sense. Looked at from the standpoint of candidates seeking election to national office, it would also make good politics.
Lawrence Wittner (https://www.lawrenceswittner.com/ ) SUNY / Albany-en eta bere egilearen historian izandako Emeritua irakaslea da Bonbardaketa aurrez aurre (Stanford University Press).
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