On January 21, on a hill outside of La Paz, a traditional ceremony marked both a major shift in Bolivian politics and a milestone for the growing New Left in Latyns-Amerika. At Tiwanaku, a site of pre-Incan ruins significant to the country’s indigenous populations, Evo Morales, barefoot and dressed in a red tunic, received a silver and gold staff from leaders of the Aymara people. It was the first time in 500 years that this ritual transfer of leadership had been performed in Bolivia and it came just a day before Morales, former president of the coca-growers’ union and the leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) Party, was officially inaugurated president of Bolivia.
In December Morales, who had campaigned on a platform championing indigenous rights and denouncing economic neoliberalism, won a landslide victory. He bested rivals, including Jorge Quiroga, a Washington favorite who had served as president of Bolivia from 2001 to 2002, finishing the term of past dictator Hugo Banzer. With a surprising 54 percent of the vote in a multi-party race, Morales not only secured the margin needed to avoid a run-off vote, he obtained the largest mandate ever given a president in Bolivian history.
Yet Morales’s hardest work may have just begun. He takes power as the first indigenous president in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population identifies with the Aymara, Quechua, or other indigenous groups. The same fraction of the country lives in poverty and the divide between rich and poor closely follows racial lines. Morales has announced plans to nationalize the country’s gas reserves, rewrite the constitution in a popular assembly, redistribute land to poor farmers, and change the rules of the U.S.-led war on drugs in Bolivia. If he helps spur on the radical change that his social movement base demands, he will face pressure from corporate investors and from the White House. If he chooses a more moderate path, Bolivia‘s social movements have pledged to organize the same type of strikes and protests that have ousted two previous presidents in the past two years.
As Morales faces these trials in the coming months, he will do so in the context of a Suid-Amerika that has moved increasingly leftward. His Administration joins left-of-center governments in Venezuela, Brasilië, Argentinië, Uruguay, en Chili. These countries offer diverse suggestions for what progressive governments can accomplish and how social movements and financial elites might respond.
Die Boliviaanse Oomblik
Morales begins his presidency following several years of social upheaval in Bolivia, fueled by a rejection of two decades of corporate globalization that deepened poverty and exacerbated inequality in the country. In April 2000 the residents of Cochabamba, Bolivia‘s third largest city, organized street protests and blockades against water privatization pushed by the World Bank and carried out by the Bechtel Corporation. In February 2003, 34 Bolivians were killed during protests against an income tax hike imposed at the behest of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In part of what became known as Bolivia‘s "gas war," over 60 people were killed in protests in October 2003 against further privatization of the country’s natural gas and a plan to export the resource through Chili.
Op daardie tydstip, Bolivia‘s indigenous majority widely referred to the sitting president-multi-millionaire Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada-as "el gringo" because he was raised in the Verenigde State and spoke Spanish with an accent. As president, Sanchez de Lozada, a leader of one of Bolivia‘s leading right-wing parties-the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement-stood as a long-time proponent of trade liberalization and IMF-recommended structural adjustment.
After gas war demonstrators were killed, street protests began calling for Sanchez de Lozada’s resignation. He was ultimately ousted on October 19, 2003. Vice President Carlos Mesa took his place, as stipulated in the country’s constitution. Under Mesa, a referendum on Bolivia‘s gas resources was held in July 2004. The measure did not include the option of nationalizing the country’s natural gas reserves, as demanded by the social movements. As a result, protests continued. In March 2005, amid further mass demonstrations, Mesa left office, claiming he was incapable of governing such a tumultuous country.
Among the presidential candidates that ran in the December 2005 election, Morales had the broadest ties to the country’s social movements, having built Bolivia‘s coca growers’ union into one of the most prominent social movements in the country. Yet despite his history as an organizer, Morales played a limited role in the popular uprisings of recent years. During the height of the gas war in 2003, for example, when mobilizations took to the streets to demand the nationalization of the country’s gas reserves,
Morales attended meetings in Genève on parliamentary politics. Morales’s actions were aimed at generating broad support among diverse sectors of society, including the middle class and those who did not fully support the tactics of protest groups. This strategy, combined with directing the momentum of social movements into the electoral realm, helped contribute to his victory on December 18.
Op hul beurt het sosiale bewegings Morales as die beste opsie in die verkiesingswedstryd ondersteun. Hulle getrouheid aan die staat bly egter beperk. Soos Oscar Olivera, 'n sleutelleier in die opstand teen die privatisering van Cochabamba se water in 2000, in 'n onlangse onderhoud met die Uruguayaanse politieke wetenskaplike Raúl Zibechi verduidelik het: "Ons skep 'n beweging, 'n onpartydige sosiaal-politieke front wat die belangrikste behoeftes aanspreek. van die mense deur 'n diepgaande verandering in magsverhoudinge, sosiale verhoudings en die bestuur van water, elektrisiteit en vullis."
"The [54 percent] isn’t a blank check, it’s a loan," said political analyst Helena Argirakis to Los Tiempos, Cochabamba‘s daily newspaper. Her colleague Fernando García added, "The social movements’ support of Morales will always be conditional."
At the same time, Morales faces severe external pressure if he antagonizes foreign creditors. Conservatives in the Verenigde State have been horrified by the success of Morales whom they regularly slander as a narco-terrorist because of his support of coca growers. (Although coca can be used to produce cocaine, the natural plant leaves are used to make tea, have traditional importance for the country’s indigenous people, and are almost impossible to abuse in their natural form.) Bolivia owes large debts to international financial institutions, including the World Bank, the IMF, and the Inter-American Development Bank. This gives the VSA an effective veto over future loans to the country and thus the potential to plunge Bolivia‘s shaky economy into economic crisis. Domestic right-wing factions, centered in the wealthy provinsie of Santa Cruz (the heartland of Bolivia‘s energy industry), are threatening to secede if resource extraction is nationalized. These conservatives are ready to side with the VSA and the IMF against Morales should an international showdown take place.
Nuwe linkse prestasies?
In looking for a model for managing these tensions, Morales can examine the record of other progressive Administrations that have taken power in Latyns-Amerika. Progressive governments in Venezuela, Brasilië, Argentinië, Uruguay, en Chili have generally increased social spending and devoted greater attention to the needs of the poor. Rarely, however, have they lived up to the expectations of the social movements that helped put them in office.
Likewise, the electoral success of progressives in Suid-Amerika has signaled a backlash to two decades of unfettered economic neoliberalism. Yet the extent to which each country has rejected the policies of the Washington Consensus varies greatly. The most recent electoral victory for the left in Latin America has taken place in Chili. There, a coalition of Christian Democrats and Socialists known as Concertación had governed since the end of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990. On January 15, Chileans elected Socialist Michelle Bachelet as their new president. Bachelet is the first woman to govern the country and only the third female directly elected a head of state in Latin American history. (Her family has been imprisoned and her father killed by the Pinochet regime in the 1970s.) While Bachelet’s victory marks an exciting cultural shift, the president-elect has vowed to "walk the same road" as the sitting socialist president, Ricardo Lagos. Lagos has supported neoliberal initiatives such as the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), maintained close ties with Washington, and distanced himself from more radical governments in the region. Although optimistic international observers hope that Bachelet will break with the moderation of the Lagos administration to more aggressively address the sharp inequality in the country, her statements thus far stress continuity.
More relevant to the Bolivian situation are the examples of Argentinië, Brasilië, en Venezuela. Each represents a dominant economy in the region and each has fared differently since progressives have held power, offering unique lessons for MAS leaders.
Bucking the IMF in Argentinië: In 2003 the left-leaning Néstor Kirchner took office in Argentinië in the aftermath of the 2001 collapse of the country’s economy and the popular uprisings that forced several successive governments from power. The neoliberal policies supported by the IMF and implemented by President Carlos Menem in the 1990s were widely seen as responsible for the collapse. Since then, Argentinië has set an important example by breaking with the IMF and playing hardball with international creditors.
The country made a credible threat of defaulting on its payments to the IMF-something previously unheard of for middle-income countries. In response the IMF backed away from demands for austerity and higher interest rates. It did so for fear that other countries would follow Argentinië in defaulting. The exchange shook the international standing of the IMF and allowed Argentinië to finalize a renegotiation of over $100 billion in foreign debt in 2005. The renegotiation drastically reduced the value of the country’s outstanding obligations to private creditors. Moreover, Argentinië‘s stance against the IMF has allowed the country to base its economic recovery on policies that, while not venturing far to the left of the standard Keynesian playbook, run contrary to those preferred by Washington. Beyond economic policy, Kirchner has supported the repeal of amnesty laws protecting military officers. This action has helped open a large number of legal cases against human rights abusers from Argentinië‘s past military government.
Still, tensions remain between Kirchner’s government and forces like the piqueteros (the unemployed workers’ movement). Such movements accuse the president of using radical or nationalistic posturing to cover more conservative policy decisions. One illustration of this conflict came with Kirchner’s announcement in December that the government (following a similar move by Brasilië) would "un-indebt" Argentinië by paying off $9.8 billion to the IMF. Citing the pain that the financial institution has caused to the country’s people, Kirchner framed the move as a decision to be rid of the IMF and its odious policy recommendations for good. However, as the Darío Santillán Popular Front, a piquetero organization, pointed out, the move amounted to a full debt repayment, rather than a renunciation. "Despite the progressive rhetoric, the debt is paid off with the hunger of the people," the group said in a statement cited by the Inter-Press Service. Ultimately, the relevance of the decision as a model for other progressive governments will depend on the Kirchner government’s ability to use its newfound freedom from the IMF to chart an increasingly independent economic course.
Lost innocence in Brasilië: The Brazilian Workers’ Party (PT) has stayed on a more conservative path since taking the presidency, to the disappointment of many who were enthusiastic to see Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva gain office in 2003. Early on, Lula, a former metalworker and union leader, pursued a "pragmatic" economic policy. His cautious decisions were designed to reassure foreign investors and avoid precipitous capital flight-a genuine concern for any country wishing to avoid the economic collapse that Argentinië had already experienced. Over time, Lula’s course has become virtually indistinguishable from the policy direction the PT once criticized harshly. Lula has opted to follow IMF prescriptions and continue making payments on Brasilië‘s huge foreign debt, which the World Bank valued in 2002 as 49.6 percent of Brasilië‘s GDP (or some $230 billion). For 20 years the PT had campaigned against paying the debt, arguing that it took too much money from social programs and productive economic investment. The president’s current position is a far cry from even the most moderate of his party’s past denunciations.
Lula se administrasie was meer aggressief in die nastrewing van sommige neoliberale maatreëls as wat selfs die IMF geëis het. IMF dikteer 'n beroep op die Brasiliaanse regering om 'n primêre begrotingsurplus van 3.75 persent van die land se BBP te handhaaf. Lula het egter vrywillig gekies om 'n selfs groter primêre surplus van 4.25 persent te handhaaf, wat geld oorlaat vir slegs beskeie verhogings in staatsbesteding aan maatskaplike programme. Verskeie van hierdie programme – soos Fome Zero, die regering se vlagskip-inisiatief teen hongersnood – is gestrem deur gebrekkige implementering en administrasie.
Boonop, terwyl sterk ekonomiese groei in die verlede gebruik is om die regering se versigtige benadering te regverdig, beweeg vanjaar se groeisyfers op 2.5 persent. Dit het veroorsaak dat selfs sommige sentristiese ekonome die regering se beheptheid met die beheer van inflasie met hoë rentekoerse, wat tot hoë werkloosheid lei, gekritiseer het.
Lula’s actions on the international scene also show a disappointing trajectory. In 2003, PT leadership of Suid-Amerika‘s largest economy promised to open a space of possibility in international negotiations. Lula spoke often about crafting a "new geography" of trade and politics where poor countries would be respected as equals. Brasilië emerged as one of the most outspoken countries condemning the VSA inval van Irak. Lula was an instrumental force behind the formation of the G20+, a group of developing countries that stood up to U.S. and European demands at the 2003 WTO ministerial in Cancún. Their stance led to the collapse of those talks.
Egter Brasilië‘s commitment to solidarity with the rest of the developing world has more recently been called into question. In the summer of 2004, Brazilian negotiators bullied poorer countries into signing the "July framework" for agriculture at WTO negotiations in Geneva-likely because Lula thought that a deal could benefit Brazilian agribusiness. This move gave new life to the languishing institution. Along with Indië, Brasilië continued its pursuit of nationalist objectives over G20+ solidarity at the WTO talks in Hong Kong in December 2005. There it used its weight to ensure that the developing world did not block an agreement on the continuation of Doha Round negotiations. Interest in growing Brasilië‘s agribusiness exports has also caused friction between Lula’s government and the once-friendly Landless Workers’ Movement (MST), which has criticized the slow pace of land reform under the PT.
In 'n laaste ontmoedigende ontwikkeling is verskeie belangrike PT-amptenare die afgelope jaar by 'n korrupsieskandaal betrek. Dit het die party se reputasie dat hy homself aan 'n hoër etiese standaard as sy mededingers hou, beskadig; dit het ook die PT ongunstig geposisioneer binne 'n konteks van politiek-soos-gewoonlik, vol patronaatskap en omkopery.
Between corruption and policy failures, some observers have aptly dubbed 2005 a Year of Innocence Lost in Brasilië. At the 2005 World Social Forum, Venezuela‘s Hugo Chávez counseled Lula’s critics to be patient and allow the PT government more time to assert its independence from the Washington Consensus. A year later, with Lula’s popularity sagging and elections in the fall drawing nearer, time may be running out.
Venezuela as protagonist: Much of the progressive leadership expected from Lula when he was first elected has ended up coming from Venezuela‘s Hugo Chávez, who has established himself as the White House’s key adversary in the region. Unlike other countries in which popular upheavals and established social movement organizations have helped to put new governments in power, Chávez has largely used the state as the starting point for directing a Bolivarian Revolution, which has subsequently developed popular dimensions. In the past two years, the shape of this revolution has come into focus as the Venezuelan economy has recovered from several rounds of oil strikes and the instability of a U.S.-supported coup in 2002.
Terwyl Chávez dikwels in die vorm van Fidel Castro gegiet word, het verskeie waarnemers opgemerk dat die herverdelingsprogramme wat die kenmerk van sy sosiale beleid is, meer aan die New Deal as aan Kubaanse staatssosialisme te danke is. Die talle regeringsprogramme wat die afgelope jare deur opbrengs uit olieverkope befonds is, sluit in 'n ambisieuse geletterdheidsprogram, gratis openbare onderwys deur die universiteitsvlak, werksopleiding, 'n program teen hongerte wat gesubsidieerde voedsel vir meer as 'n derde van die land verskaf, en 'n uitgebreide stelsel van gratis openbare gesondheidsklinieke. Chávez se beslis on-neoliberale ekonomiese beleid het die sterkste groei in die halfrond geskep, met die land se BBP wat in 18 met 2004 persent gestyg het en in 9 ongeveer 2005 persent.
On the international scene, Chávez has been the most outgoing of Latin American leaders in proposing a unified front for the New Left. He has presented the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) as a model for regional cooperation distinct from the FTAA. He has loaned Argentinië almost a billion dollars and has sold discounted oil to many countries in order to benefit impoverished populations (including residents of low-income housing in Boston en die Bronx). In another such oil deal, Kuba sent some 20,000 doctors to bolster the public health care system in Venezuela in exchange for infusions of oil. At the WTO talks in Hong Kong, Venezuela provided a strong and consistent critical voice. In one dramatic stance at the closing ceremony, Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Mari Pili Hernandez denounced the WTO agreement on the record before it was rubber-stamped by the assembly.
Wat Venezuela is the leading oil exporter in the hemisphere is a central fact in the country’s recent transformation. High oil prices-which produced $25 billion in profits for the Venezuelan government in 2004 (even more in 2005)-have given Chávez both abundant funds and political leeway to carry out his policies. (Of course, high export prices do not necessarily translate into human development. Previous oil booms have done nothing to boost the incomes of the poor or decrease inequality.) Likewise, Chávez deserves credit for his efforts to build solidarity among Latin American nations, something other relatively affluent countries have often neglected.
However, the Venezuelan model is not without problems. The good fortune of the country’s natural resource wealth raises questions about whether the Bolivarian Revolution is an exportable one. Indebted countries with less freedom to antagonize the international financial community cannot afford to replicate Chávez’s social programs and public bluster. Moreover, a number of state initiatives have drawn fire from environmentalists. In one example, the PDVSA-the Venezuelan state energy company-has teamed up with ChevronTexaco and Phillips Petroleum in the multi-million dollar Hamaca project, which will develop an oil field in the Orinoco river basin. Activists argue that the project will have a devastating impact on the surrounding ecosystem.
The centrality of Venezuela‘s president as a charismatic leader of reform efforts also raises concerns about whether the "revolution" can survive beyond Chávez. Having no lack of self-regard, Chávez regularly portrays himself as a key historical actor and has often worked to consolidate his own power. It remains to be seen how well local groups such as the "Bolivarian circles," which act as forums for democratic participation in new social initiatives, will be able to mature so as to outlive Chávez’s tenure and ensure a model distinct from the centralized state power held by Castro in Kuba.
Hoe gaan dit Bolivia Vergelyk?
Domestic circumstances, foreign pressures, and the Morales government’s own political inclinations will determine whether Bolivia will travel down one of the paths blazed in Argentina, Brazil, or Venezuela, or set an entirely different course. In terms of political conditions, Bolivia is an amalgam of its South American neighbors. Like Argentinië, Bolivia has experienced a crisis of governance, with rapid turnover in the presidency. Strong social movement pressure has created a mandate for standing up to international financial institutions. Yet like Brasilië, Bolivia must still worry about capital flight and foreign creditors, which can potentially cripple its economy and limit the government’s ability to act. Ironically, Petrobras, an energy company partially owned by the Brazilian state, is one of the largest foreign interests in Bolivia‘s gas industry. That said, Bolivia‘s ample natural resources could potentially translate into leverage for Morales, just as oil has proven a boon to Chávez. Bolivia has some of the largest natural gas reserves in the hemisphere and large oil deposits as well. However, at least in the near future, the country is dependent on foreign investment to develop these resources.
The independence of civil society marks a critical difference between Bolivia en Venezuela. Leaders in the new Morales government and in the country’s social movements have been quick to assert that Bolivian political landscape under a MAS administration will be very distinct from that seen in Caracas. In an interview with the Spanish news agency EFE, incoming Vice President Álvaro García Linera argued that, while in Kuba en Venezuela "the civil society has been constructed by the state," Bolivian civil society is almost entirely grassroots. Linera described the country’s recent political experience as a "construction of multiple social movements with a far-reaching trajectory, and an organizational and autonomous capacity, that little by little has been pressuring the state and eventually occupying it."
Oscar Olivera, the social movement leader in Cochabamba, explained, "We aren’t fighting to govern, we’re fighting to make the government disappear and self-govern ourselves." When asked if he was interested in helping transform Bolivia into another Venezuela, he said: "I don’t believe in military leaders, or ex-military leaders [such as Chávez]. Every country is different, and has its own culture and history. Many people in the media treat Chávez as though he were the best thing possible. But the leader is one thing and the people are another."
Nasionalisering van olie en gas
Two issues will preoccupy the Morales administration in coming months: reclaiming profits and ownership of Bolivian oil and gas resources; and rewriting the constitution in a popular assembly. While these same two issues powered the political process in Venezuela after Chávez took power, Morales will face serious challenges in each arena.
No matter what the MAS leaders do with Bolivia‘s gas and oil reserves, they are likely to upset corporate investors, social movements, or both. The social movements are demanding full nationalization. As Olivera explains, "We won’t accept partial nationalization. All of the contracts are with neoliberal companies. All they want to do is take our gas. People didn’t die [in recent social struggles] to give the gas to the companies. The people have to say what we need to do with the gas. Pachamama [Mother Earth] is for the people, not for the transnational corporations."
Terwyl hy ook die taal van "nasionalisering" gebruik, het Morales 'n meer gematigde benadering aangedui, en onderskei tussen die natuurlike hulpbronne ondergronds en die bates van die ontginningsbedryf. Uiteindelik sal MAS waarskynlik elke individuele energiemaatskappy anders hanteer en probeer om toegewings van elkeen te beding. “Ons sal die natuurlike hulpbronne, gas en koolwaterstowwe nasionaliseer,” het Morales vroeg in Januarie gesê. "Ons gaan nie die bates van die multinasionale maatskappye nasionaliseer nie. Enige staat het die reg om sy natuurlike hulpbronne te gebruik. Ons moet nuwe kontrakte met die oliemaatskappye aangaan op grond van ewewig. Ons gaan die opbrengs op hul belegging en hul winste waarborg. , maar nie plundering en steel nie."
Such reassurances have been popular with groups such as the Comité Civico Pro Santa Cruz, a pro-privatization lobby in the Santa Cruz region, with which Morales met following his electoral victory. Morales also traveled to Brasilië to meet with Lula on January 13. There he vowed not to expropriate the property of energy companies and guaranteed the security of Brasilië‘s investments. He also outlined a plan to organize a multinational commission among Bolivia‘s gas investors to revise contracts and agreements between different countries.
Dealing with individual companies may be an effective way to gain concessions from the energy industry without risking corporate lawsuits and pressure from the VSA However, it would leave the Morales administration open to charges of having sold out to the corporations if the concessions it gains are inadequate. This dilemma adds importance to the second main issue confronting the government: the need for a popular assembly to rewrite the constitution. Such an assembly would create an opportunity for diverse political parties, business leaders, and social movements to agree on the terms for gas exportation.
'n Grondwetgewende Vergadering
Morales’s campaign promise to call an assembly between diverse social sectors to rewrite the constitution contributed significantly to his victory. The re-writing of Venezuela‘s constitution in 2000 served as the launching pad for that country’s new political process. There, a referendum and nationwide assemblies were held to create and approve the new constitution. The new document mandated that profits from the oil industry be redirected into the state for social programs in education, health care, and community media initiatives. Today, a common saying in Venezuela holds that the new constitution is the country’s strongest weapon against corporate globalization and imperialism.
The re-writing of Bolivia‘s constitution may prove to be similarly powerful. The election of delegates for a constituent assembly is now scheduled to take place in June 2006 and the actual assembly will convene in August. Three delegates will be elected from each of the country’s municipalities and delegations must include a minimum of one woman and one indigenous person. At present, social movements are putting forth proposals for what they want to see in a new constitution. Some of the main issues on the table include gas nationalization, land reform, free trade agreements with the VSA, and a referendum on autonomy for the Santa Cruz region. Because the majority of the delegates are likely to represent social movements, the new constitution is expected to favor popular forces over corporations and foreign interests.
The constituent assembly may well redraw Bolivia‘s electoral map to allow for adequate representation of indigenous peoples. This could result in new elections, which might challenge Morales’s power. However, his enormous electoral victory indicates that any elections resulting from changes to the constitution will favor MAS. Nonetheless, well-funded lobbyists from Santa Cruz may be successful in pushing for autonomy in their gas-rich region. Moreover, it is unclear how the changes in a new constitution would be enforced. In Venezuela the country’s constitution declares that all housewives are entitled to a pension for their work. However, this has not been made into a law or put into effect.
Sommige sosiale bewegingsgroepe, soos die Workers and Campesinos Federation of La Paz, het Morales 'n venster van twee maande gegee om geweldige veranderinge in die land aan te bring. Sulke radikale is in die minderheid. Die meeste sosiale bewegingsorganisasies het onderneem om te wag vir die uitslae van die grondwetgewende vergadering voordat hulle ernstig op die administrasie druk. As die vergadering nie aan eise soos gasnasionalisering voldoen nie, sal betogings en padblokkades na verwagting plaasvind.
Sulke protesveldtogte kan die land lamlê en politieke verdeeldheid vererger. Hulle kan Morales ook hefboomwerking gee om sommige van sy meer radikale veldtogbeloftes na te streef as die elite besluit dat hulle eerder die regering in plek sal hou as om ontwrigting te waag. Daar is waarskynlik geen ander land in Latyns-Amerika waar sosiale bewegings so goed georganiseer is en so 'n groot vermoë het om die presidentskap te bedreig nie. Hierdie balans van politieke spierkrag tussen die straat en die staat maak dit onwaarskynlik dat Morales Lula se "pragmatiese" toegewings aan neoliberalisme kan herhaal, al sou hy wou.
Buiten hul rol om die regering te druk, kan gevestigde voetsoolvlaknetwerke 'n basis bied vir die herorganisasie van politieke mag en verteenwoordiging. Reg voor die Desember-verkiesing het 'n vergadering wat die Kongres van die Nasionale Front vir die Verdediging van Water en Basiese Menslike Dienste genoem is, byeengeroep om alliansies tussen die land se sosiale bewegingsgroepe te smee. Die kongres sluit in die Waterkoördineringskomitee van Cochabamba, die Federasie van Buurtrade van El Alto, die Water- en Dreineringskoöperasies van Santa Cruz, asook ander buurtorganisasies, koöperasies, besproeiingsboere en komitees oor elektrisiteit en ander dienste. In baie gevalle het hierdie outonome groepe georganiseerde metodes om burgers te voorsien van basiese dienste wat die staat versuim om te bied. So 'n koalisie van grondvlakmagte sal as 'n kragtige steunwerwingsinstrument vir die grondwetgewende vergadering dien. Afhangende van die resultate van die vergadering, kan dit óf 'n infrastruktuur vir deelname aan nuwe staatsprogramme verskaf óf 'n alternatiewe struktuur vir bestuur verteenwoordig.
Like many other Bolivians who voted for Morales, Anselmo Martinez Tola, an organizer of indigenous groups in Potosi, Bolivia, believed the MAS candidate was the most likely among presidential contenders to convoke a constituent assembly. "We are a majority and through the assembly we hope to rescue what belongs to us," he said, referring to the nationalization of the gas and the redistribution of land. His organization has been choosing delegates for their municipality and developing proposals for the assembly. Among them is a suggestion that the government be restructured along the lines of traditional ayllus, which are small groups of families that have long guided decision-making in indigenous communities across the country. "We have to have a new constitution that refers to our culture, our history, and not foreign countries or companies. It has to reflect the varied movement of indigenous groups in Bolivia," Tola explained.
Critics such as James Petras, a long-time analyst of Latin America, have denounced the "army of uncritical left cheerleaders" that has celebrated Evo Morales’s victory and has expressed hope for significant changes in Bolivia. Just as he has been disappointed by Lula and Kirchner, Petras predicts that the Morales administration will undertake only "symbolic gestures of a purely rhetorical nature, devoid of nationalist substance," rather than truly redistributive initiatives.
Daar is rede om anders te glo. Morales het hom dalk tydens die presidensiële veldtog as 'n gematigde voorgehou om breër steun te kry, maar sy beslissende oorwinning het ruimte geskep vir dapper optrede. In die oë van baie MAS-ondersteuners is beleid rakende gasnasionalisering, grondhervorming en inheemse regte nie in die hande van Morales nie, maar eerder in die hande van die grondwetgewende vergadering. ’n Hergeskrewe grondwet bring belofte vir aansienlike verandering mee. Kennis van die vergadering se wil en noukeurig gemonitor deur een van Latyns-Amerika se magtigste sosiale bewegings, sal die Morales-administrasie die mandaat en die motivering hê om 'n harde onderhandeling met internasionale krediteure te voer en sy eie model vir progressiewe bestuur te skep.
Tot dan, Bolivia will stand on the brink of a new post-colonial period, for the first time governed by an indigenous leader who looks like the majority of its people and resting in a continent that has moved another step away from neoliberalism. If the victory put on display at the ruins of Tiwanaku is thus far only a symbol, it is no doubt a potent one.
Benjamin Dangl edits UpsideDownWorld.org and is the author of The Price of Fire: Resource Wars and Social Movements in Bolivia and Beyond (forthcoming from AK Press). Mark Engler is an analyst with Foreign Policy In Focus.
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